Ranking the Conferences

TSF is just a short ways away from publishing our final rankings for the 2010-2011 season. But before we get to that, I'm going to post a ranking of all the conferences that had some presence in the Top 25 season. For the purposes of this article, let's just call those conferences the Top-25'ers. Before I get into the messy business of ranking them, I have to explain that this makes for no exact science, and I need to give the background to the methodology I applied. In no way can we make an apples-to-apples comparison, but hey...it's fun to try.

First, as you know, every Division I school plays some lower tier opponents to soften their out of conference schedule. Some teams play more of these games than others. And some conference schedules allow for more intra-conference play that others. As a result the number of inter-conference play between Top-25'ers varies between one another. This means Top-25 conference X may play 33 contests against other Top-25'ers while conference Y may only play 20. I've taken that into consideration as best I can.

To compile the raw data, since I don't have the fancy database search tools at my hands as do the broadcasters' announcers, I had to manually assemble this looking through each team's results. Full disclaimer, I may have one to two things wrong due to human error, but I did the best I could not to make any mistakes. So onto the methodology...each conference has a row of data including wins, losses, total inter-Top-25'er contests, and win percentage. I have compiled six sets of standings. The first two have the same data as one another, just sorted differently. They contain the standings for the Top-25'ers sorted by win percentages and the same sorted by number of inter-Top-25'er conference contests. The second set of two holds the same data, respectively, but for the bowl season only. And finally the last two standings consider the entire season, regular and bowl.

First, let's start with the regular season.



We can see that the Big 12 took on the most inter-Top-25'er contests, and on top of that they finished with the highest win percentage. Trailing by just a little in win percentage, the SEC places right behind the Big 12, but with considerably less games. The rest of the Top-25'ers play roughly the same amount of games as the SEC, so we probably don't need to lean on the sorted by numbers of inter-Top-25'er contests standings too much here. After the SEC, we see a gap between the 2nd and 3rd place conferences. The Big Ten and Pac 10 take the next spots in that order and with similar win percentages, followed by the WAC and MWC. The ACC trails them, and the Big East is hanging in the basement.

While the number of inter-Top-25'er games doesn't necessarily tell us which conferences are stronger than others, it does tell us which programs are trying to put together exiting and challenging schedules, which of course factors into individual team rankings. The Big 12 is clearly making the biggest effort.

Now, let's turn to the bowl season.



Here, the win percentages can't sand on their own. The WAC is first for crying out loud, and even worse the Big East ranks higher than the SEC! So for the bowl season, let's weigh how many teams actually competed in bowls. I think this strongly represents people's perceptions of how these conferences compare to one another, with the exception of the Big East. They almost certainly don't deserve a standing higher than the Pac 10. But the Pac 10's low number of bowl bids shows how top heavy and lopsided the conference is. Although this chart doesn't reflect every bowl bid for every conference (some played against non-Top-25'ers), it does for the Pac 10. If we throw in USC pretending their scandal didn't exist, that wold still only bring them to tied with the Big East. Our ACC did okay in this respect. This chart reflects the inter-Top-25er bowl play for the ACC, but the total number for the ACC is actually higher with 9 appearances.

And finally, let's look at the entire season.



I weight the standing here with the sorting by win percentages more heavily. Even though the number of inter-Top-25'er contests vary between 33 and 20, 20 is still a sizable enough sample set to gage a win percentage that indicates something significant. In that chart the Big 12 just barely edges out the SEC. The Big 12 did so well in the regular season, but they had a very mediocre performance in the bowl season, but they still managed to hang on to their narrow lead over the SEC. The SEC pretty much held on to where they were in terms of win percentage, with only small drop. The Big 10 however, performed abysmally during the bowl season in comparison to the hype we heard all season long about the strength of that conference, but fortunately for them, only weaker conferences trailed them and had too much ground to make up from the regular season to catch them. All of those conferences behind the Big Ten made up some ground, but nothing dramatic.

So there you have it. That's how the Top-25'ers stack up to one another. We could use this for speculation into seasons to come, but that has its limits with some of the movement of programs between the conferences in coming seasons. TCU heads to the Big East. Utah and Colorado head to the Pac 10, err Pac 12. Nebraska heads to the Big Ten with twelve teams, leaving the Big 12 with, umm, ten teams. And who would dare say that doesn't make sense? And the SEC has accepted the James Madison Dukes...PSYCH! Comparing the conferences always provides a good barometer for how teams earn their rankings in the BCS, the poll, and of course right here on TSF. As I said earlier, it's not an exact science. Somebody else running this exercise with his/her own method could produce different results, although I'd get a little suspicious if the Big East or the WAC wound up beating out the SEC. But nonetheless, I think the endeavor worthwhile for a little speculative fun.

Something that I didn't measure was a consideration of the number of games that ended with the difference of a single touchdown or less. My raw data includes that, so maybe there'll be a follow-up on that. The argument on that has some given and take. While you could say that a game that close could have gone either way, we could also say that it's the elite programs that finish strong in the close games, hence making them elite programs. So does winning by seven or less mean a weaker win or a stronger team? I think there's a case for both.

You can access the raw data here: 2010_conference_rankings.ods. You will need Open Office to view it. If you don't have that program, it's freely available for all the commonly used platforms: Open Office. (If you run Mac OS, Neo Office will also work if you don't want to run X: NeoOffice)

Looking onward to the 2011-12 season...LET'S GO HOKIES!

Game Preview - Orange Bowl

After week two's loss James Madison, no college football fan could make a strong case for Virginia Tech's appearance in a BCS bowl. In fact, even some Hokie faithful began to have chills of a bowl ineligible season, but here we are about to watch our Hokies compete against Stanford for the Orange Bowl title. I can't claim to have had full confidence in the Hokies running the table in their ACC schedule, but as frustrated as the loss to JMU made me, I didn't see the Hokies dropping too many more contests. Part of me even had a sense of relief that our worst losses lay behind us. And as we've seen thus far, the recurring theme has been that of a late start, for both many individual games and the season as a whole. Our Hokies have had more than just a few poor first quarter performances followed by playing great football thereafter. This theme and the level of play Virginia Tech football has exhibited has me optimistic about the upcoming contest on January 3. I fully expect the Hokies to keep the opposition fans on edge throughout the night.

Let's take a look at the Hokies' opponent, the Stanford Cardinal. Wake Forest is the only common opponent shared between the two teams this season. Each team slaughtered the Deamon Deacons, doubling their score in each respective game. The Cardinals play in the Pac 10 conference, soon to don the name Pac 12 with newcomer teams. To establish the caliber of the Stanford team, I start with analyzing their conference. Their conference includes the likes of the USC Trojans, Oregon Ducks, and UCLA Bruins. Historically, fans of the Pac 10 have griped of the college football commentary world consistently under-rating their conference, and this claim has some ground on which to stand. For example, in the 2008-09 bowl season, the Pac 10 cleaned up with a 5-0 record. But then in the 2009-10 bowl season, the Pac 10 went 2-5. If you trace back over the inter-conference play, you'll notice that the pendulum swings. This year, the Pac 10 has gone 11-9 in their inter-conference play. Considering their win percentage, they place fourth amongst conferences that had some team in the top 25 sometime this season. The ACC ranks seventh in this way. This year, Oregon is all the rage, earning a number two ranking and some weeks holding the number one spot. Oregon has handed Stanford their only loss. In all comparison, the Pac 10 stacks up as a tougher conference this season than the ACC. By that barometer, Stanford placing second in the conference while losing only to a team headed to the National Championship Game makes them a formidable opponent and the favorite to win on Jan 3.

Let's take a top-down look at the Cardinal. Stanford head Coach Jim Harbaugh took over the team in December of 2006 and has since steadily improved the program to reach their current BCS bowl bid. In his first season as head coach, his squad defeated a number one ranked USC, the favorite by 41 points. This season, Sanford has won most of its games by a definitive margin. Only Arizona State and USC handed them a win margin of less than a touchdown. In each of these games the Cardinal scored their winning points in the fourth quarter, which shows they can finish strong in a close game. Stanford exemplifies the West Coast offense by ranking second the Pac 10 in passing with 3076 yards on the season. They've put up 2532 rushing yards and also ranked second in the conference in that category. The Stanford defense ranks first in the Pac 10 allowing 2404 passing yards, 1515 rushing yards, ~18 points per game, and ~327 yards per game. Virginia Tech, on the other hand, doesn't have numbers quite as good. The Hokies have allowed 2591 yards and 1936 yards in passing and rushing respectively. On offense, the Hokies have generated 2628 and 2716 yards in passing and rushing respectively. And those numbers come from contests within a weaker conference. One caveat: the Hokies' contest against Boise State does make their non-conference schedule notably more challenging.

Now, let's turn to some individual elements within the Cardinal. Heisman candidate and quarterback Andrew Luck finished second to Cam Newton of Auburn for the trophy. Luck has broken the school's season record of touchdown passes with 28. He has completed ~70% of his passes this season, while throwing for 3051 yards. Standing at 6'4" and weighing in at 235 lbs., the Junior quarterback is no picnic to tackle. His offense has allowed only five sacks (of him) on the season. Luck has a lot of depth in his receiver core, but one clearly stands out from the rest. Wide receiver Doug Baldwin has caught for 824 yards and nine touchdowns this season. The Senior receiver will surely give trouble to Virginia Tech's corners. Other receivers, Ryan Whalen, Chris Owusu, Coby Fleener, Stepfan Taylor, and Griff Whalen each have 200+ yards in receiving, so Luck has other options if the Hokies can cover Baldwin. On the ground, Stanford really only has one go-to guy in Stephan Taylor. Taylor has amassed an 1023 yards in rushing this season. Luck himself holds the next most rushing yardage with 438. Anthony Wilkerson, the Freshman second string running back, has 409 yards on the season.

(Side Note--Here are some horrendous Andrew Luck puns from which I restrained myself from using in this post: "With Luck on their side", "When the Hokie defense blitzes, Luck will run out", "a quarterback standing 6'4" gives them all the Luck they need", "If the quarterback gets injured, they will be out of Luck." Well, I guess I didn't really restrain myself if I just used them, but you had fair warning to skip this part!)

On the Hokie injury front, Linebacker Lyndell Gibson injured his shoulder during the ACC championship game against Florida State. He underwent surgery and will take the next 6-8 months to recover. Redshirt fresham Tariq Edwards will take his place. This will add inexperience to the defensive squad that has spent most of this year maturing, and maturing quite well I might add. However, this could add a weak link to the chain, but I can only roughly speculate.

Overall, I think the biggest determining factors will lie in how well the Hokies defend the secondary. Standford's offense hasn't seen a ground defense quite like that of Bud Foster's, and I think they'll stop the Stanford run for the most part. But Stanford has a very deep and experienced receiver core that will probably have a few tricks up its sleeve for the Virginia Tech corners and safeties. Going the other direction, the only running game Stanford has faced that could measure up to that of Virginia Tech is Oregon, who rushed for 388 yards against the Cardinal. One or more of Ryan Williams, Darren Eveans, and David Wilson will in all likelihood make big gains on the ground. As for the Hokies' passing game, the Cardinal have also not faced anything like Tyrod Taylor combined with the Virginia Tech receiving core, with lots of experience of its own. While the Stanford defense without question will have strategized and drilled on how to contain Taylor, planning to do so makes for one thing while actually executing it with success makes for another. Taylor's passing game is not gong to go quietly in his last game in a Virginia Tech jersey.

And that brings me to my next point. Sadly, this game marks the last of Tyrod Taylor playing for the Hokies. Our program has
had the fortune of having some of the most dynamic and fun to watch quarterbacks. Michael Vick dazzled the college football world, Bryan Randall exceeded all expectations, and now Tyrod Taylor has given us quite a show as well. I remember the first game he took a snap, when he relieved Sean Glennon in the midst of suffering a shellacking against LSU. Through much of the seasons during which he split the spotlight with Glennon, he seemingly had a two-step thought process: (1) look for a pass and (2) when that fails, rush. That thought process has its limits, and while with it he showed athletic ability, it doesn't necessarily make for elite quarterbacking. I roughly place the time at which Taylor made a significant transition around the second quarter of the game against Nebraska of the 2009 season. He began to adopt the thought process of (1a) look for a pass, (1b) scrample to give the receivers time to make an opportunity for a pass, and (2) when those fail, rush. The insertion of step 1b is a big difference maker and has propelled Taylor into the realm of the best quarterback to come through Hokie football, especially considering that he played four years opposed to Vick playing two. And of course its also worth noting the breath of fresh air in a team leader that did not have the off field conduct issues of some of his predecessors. Tyrod Taylor, Hokie football shall miss and always remember you.

The numbers and statistics seem to give Stanford the edge, but I think there's a few other factors that could swing the pendulum in the Hokies' direction. While the Cardinal have made a big stride as a program this season, they have done so at a time when the Pac 10's typical power house, USC, is in the midst of an off season and dealing with the PR fallout from a scandal. USC's play in past seasons has elevated that of the entire conference. So the competition to get to this bowl is probably not as stiff as years past. Also, this will make for Harbaugh's first appearance at a BCS bowl game as a head coach, and it will be opposite BCS bowl veteran Frank Beamer. Stanford has some strong momentum, but the only conference champion they have met handed them a 21 point loss. The Hokies have strong momentum of their own, testament to their ACC dominance after a two-loss season opening. The statistics paint a very good picture for Stanford, but the differentiator doesn't always lie within the numbers. Let's hope that's the case on January 3!

LET'S GO HOKIES!

Game Review - vs. Virginia

With the Coastal title already locked down, the Virginia Tech Hokies hosted the Virginia Cavaliers for the annual Commonwealth Cup featuring the biggest in-state rivalry on Saturday. The game held no impact on the standings for the Maroon and Orange, but as the rivalry game all Virginians tune in to watch as they emerge from Turkey induced food comas, this game still holds the significance of rivalry bragging rights. A Coastal division title holds little significance to the circumstances of UVA alumni family members rubbing in a loss with such a differential between each respective team's records this season. And if you come from a Virginia family, it's pretty uncommon that you don't have family members from each of the two universities. But alas, our Hokies prevailed and we have yet another year to hold the shellacking over our Wahoo brethren's heads. Another thing at stake, the Hokies' streak with 10+ wins in a season stood as another factor in the game. Saturday's win solidifies the Hokies as the only team with a currently active streak with seasons of 10+ wins, a streak that goes seven seasons back. Lastly, this game also holds significance because it marks quarterback Tyrod Taylor's last game at Lane Stadium. I can speak for all Hokie fans in saying that we all wanted him to have a spectacular finish at Lane Stadium.

True to form with respect to the rest of the season, the Hokies opened up the game with a rather drab first quarter. They gained a total of 16 yards over two drives, both of which went three and out. The defense allowed 63 yards. Thanks to a Cavalier missed field goal, the first quarter came to a close without any points on the board for either team.

The offense came out swinging in the second quarter. They opened with an interception deep in UVA territory, and on the ensuing possession Ryan Williams ran a touchdown into the endzone to put the Hokies on top. Next, the Hokie defense held the Cavalier offense to a six play, 20 yard drive that ended with UVA head coach Mike London making the foolish call to go for it on fourth down. The next Virginia Tech possession resulted in a 20 yard pass to David Wilson (the 20 yards Wilson actually ran) for a touchdown. The subsequent Virginia drive went three and out, and the Hokies squeezed a field goal into the half with 22 seconds remaining. Going into halftime, the Hokies commanded the game with a 17-0 lead.

The second half opened with a 70 yard kickoff by Justin Myer that actually split the uprights, and five plays later, Virginia Tech had received a Virginia punt ready to begin their first drive of the second half. In two minutes they moved the ball 53 yards over six plays capping off the drive with a rushing touchdown by Ryan Williams. After another UVA punt, the Hokie offense marched the field 88 yards in 11 plays over six minutes capping off that drive with a Darren Evans rushing touchdown. At this point, each of the top three Hokie running backs had earned a touchdown.

Once the Hokie offense began running their second string players, Logan Thomas had entered the game for Tyrod Taylor. Taylor having made his last play in Lane Stadium exited the game after having minorly strained his shoulder but happy and in high spirits having left nothing on the field. But much to my disappointment, almost every remaining playcall was a running call where Thomas made a handoff. I say disappointing because this would have made for a great opportunity to give Thomas a chance to make some throws and for Hokie fans to get an idea of what to expect from the second stringer further down the line. Originally recruited as a tight end, Virginia Tech coaching took notice to his ability to throw the ball. The 6'6" quarterback towers over most of his peers, and I'd like to have seen a threw tosses from our potential starter at some point down the road.

Minor disappointments aside, Virginia Tech played a spectacular day against their arch rivals with the offense earning 182 yards of passing, 201 yards of rushing, and five touchdowns. The defense held the second best offense in the ACC to 291 yards and only seven points on the scoreboard.

NC State was mounting a miracle comeback against Maryland until a bad spot (from what I could see) resulted in a first down for Maryland that enabled them to run out the clock. It's also unfortunate that Maryland dropped their contest against Florida State. Ralph Friedgen has turned that program around in very short order and they are playing like a top 25 team. But now we look towards the ACC championship game in Charlotte, NC against Florida State. It's hard to know what to expect. They've got a new coach and a new outlook after defeating the Florida Gators.

LET'S GO HOKIES!

Game Preview - vs. Miami

On Saturday afternoon, our Virginia Tech Hokies take on the Miami Hurricanes. The Hokies have kept a goose egg in their ACC L-column this year, and they can sew up the Coastal division title with a win. Should Miami come away with the win, they will keep their division title hopes alive. Should they win the rest of their games and the Hokie's dropped in their contest one week later against UVA, the 'Canes would take the division on a head-to-head tiebreaker. I gage the Hurricanes as the Hokies' most difficult opponent since Boise State...IF they have their starting quarterback Jacory Harris.

Thus far, the Hokies have exhibited great resiliency since the abyss in which they found themselves two games into the season, but this contest is far from one they can expect to consider in the bag. While the Hokies have the strongest offense in the ACC by the measure of points per game (35), the 'Canes rank as the second best defense in the conference averaging only 18 points per game allowed. In passing defense they rank number one. Their rushing defense, however, ranks much further down at number eight.

Miami quarterback, "Heart Attack" Jacory Harris leads the 'Canes offense this season, but he suffered a major hit leading to concussion symptoms against UVA on 10/30. He did practice with the team on Tuesday, so remote chance the he'll play does stand. Presuming that (a) he does play and (b) he comes out on the field at the top of his game, Miami has a formidable offense. Harris has put up 1646 yards in passing thus far, and has a completion rate of 53%. Harris brings similar assets as Tyrod Taylor to the field. He can run, throw, and scramble to transform plays shaping up as sacks into rushing gains, albeit he lacks the composure of the experienced college athlete in which Tyalor has grown. But with the right level of momentum and some breaks going his way, Harris could do what it takes to get Miami the W. Miami head coach Randy Shannon said the following to comment on Harris' status. "I know you guys want to keep worrying about who's going to be the starter and all the fans want to know who's going to be the guy. Let the guy get healthy. Let him go through the process instead of trying to force him back into something that can hurt him. ... I hope you all understand this because I've talked about it for about two weeks. Concussions are serious. And a lot of fans, a lot of media and bloggers, you all think it's a deal where you can just line up after one week off and then the next week show up and play. It's not that way. ... All it takes is one hit if we go back too early, and now Jacory is in another world. ... I'm not going to do that. We're going to do it the right way here at Miami. We're going to take him slow.'' A head coach with that attitude is a head coach with class ladies and gentlemen.

Under the expected circumstances of Harris not playing, Stephen Morriss will take the snaps for the Miami offense. In his first game against Virginia, he threw 9 for 22 attempts for 162 yards, but most impressively demonstrated a steep upwards learning curve in orchestrating a 19 point comeback all within the fourth quarter to close the gap. The 'Canes ended up losing that game by 5, but that's almost a victory considering the uphill climb they faced. The next week against Maryland, Morris exhibited signs of rapid improvement. He threw for a 60% completion rate and 286 yards. And against Georgia Tech, he led the 'Canes to a 35-10 victory in comparison to Virginia Tech's 28-21 victory which nearly went into overtime in the final seconds of the game. Considering coming into the season this late as a starter, Morris has shown a lot success. The stats support that. With a 53% completion rate the Freshman stands to give Bud Foster's defense at least some trouble. Don't assume the Miami quarterback situation means that the 'Canes will roll over.

When Miami passing takes to the air, they primarily look to wide receivers Travis Benjamin and Leonard Hankerson. Hankerson leads the ACC with 879 yards of receiving. Benjamin has received for 627 yards thus far on the season. And then LaRon Byrd has accumulated 355 yards. Running back Damien Berry has amassed 763 yards on the season thus far, which exceeds anyone from Virginia Tech's running back core and ranks third across the ACC, and that's having missing a game on the season. The number two running back, Lamar Miller, has accrued 462 yards over eight games.

When it comes to how each of the respective squads match up, I like how the chips fall for the Hokies. The Hokies have the second best rushing offense in the league, only surpassed by Georgia Tech who does nothing but run the ball. The Hokies have a very deep running back core, which has something to do with the fact that their individual stats don't quite compare to the leaders of other teams around college football. Let's be frank. Any of Darren Evans, Ryan Williams, or David Wilson could safely be the number one running back around much of Division I NCAA football, but the depth translates to less carries per game for each player. Side note: Gobbler Country has Wilson listed as probable, presumably recovered from his bout with mononucleosis. But I digress. The 'Canes defense hasn't done well against the run this year, so I like those odds, and I see the ground game as the primary offensive strategy for the Hokies. Switching things around Miami's rushing edges out over their offense, not by a mile, but noticeably. Virginia Tech's passing defense ranks very high and very effective. The Hokie's rushing defense has given up some ground this season, so I fear that Miami has an opportunity if their playcalling gets the better of the Hokie defense's adjustments.

All in all, expect a good game.

GO HOKIES

Game Review - vs. Georgia Tech

Mid-season, big game, high stakes, Hokie players running out onto the field beating their chests with frost rising from their breath, fans shouting deafening cheers that Lane Stadium's engineering is designed to trap...It's Thursday night football in Blacksburg. Does it get any better?

Thursday night the Virginia Tech Hokies hosted the Georgia Tech Ramblin' Wreck for a game that could have at regular season's end determined who wins the Coastal division of the ACC. The Hokies pulled out the win in the final seconds of the game with an interception in the endzone to stop a Yellow Jacket drive to tie the game. With the win, the Hokies planted a steak in the ground as the clear favorites to win the division. It's not a done deal yet. Contests against North Carolina, Miami, and Virginia still lay ahead. But our beloved Orange and Maroon have have nonetheless positioned themselves very well within the ACC. After the loss to James Madison, many made comparisons to Michigan's loss to Appalachian State just a few years ago. That loss marked the beginning of the Wolverine's program headed into steep decline. After a heartbreaking loss to Boise State just one week prior, many casted shadows of doubt on where this season could lead with a loss to James Madison. But the Hokies did the opposite. They regrouped and refocused. They knew they still had their entire ACC schedule ahead of them, and they set their sights on that. They've battled back and have played up to a level that has exceeded expectations. And after Saturday, there will probably be a few less two-loss teams, which means a bump in the rankings. But don't let those heads swell too big to fit into their helmets. Like I said, the Hokies still have formidable opponents ahead.

Turning our attention to the game, the Hokies opened the game they way they have against so many teams this season. They played on their heels for the entire first quarter. Georgia Tech unleashed the same offense they did a year ago with the triple option run. During the first fifteen minutes of the game, it worked like a charm. They earned 158 yards and 14 points. The game opened with the Virginia Tech special teams allowing a 44 yard kickoff return. On the Yellow Jackets' first drive, they methodically ran down the field where quarterback Joshua Nesbitt ran the ball into the endzone for a touchdown. The Hokies punted after their first drive, and on the ensuing Georgia Tech drive, Virginia Tech's defense broke down, and Nesbitt took advantage of it by running 71 yards for a touchdown. So just like that, less than ten minutes into the game, the Yellow Jackets commanded the game with a two-touchdown lead. Having seen the Hokies in this situation before and battle back several times during the season, I expressed discontent and disapproval, but I didn't really start to worry. The Hokies then put together a good drive to end the quarter. They didn't quite get into the endzone by the quarter's end, but they opened the second quarter with Ryan Williams, returning from his injury, punching the ball into the paint for a touchdown.

The rest of the second quarter went by largely without incident. Each team had a couple of drives, but we can essentially call the second quarter a draw. Jayron Hosley fumbled on a punt return, and that shifted momentum after a really big Hokie defensive stop. One thing I would like to say about the second quarter is that the Hokie offensive line looked great. At times, they didn't just give quarterback Tyrod Taylor a few seconds to find a receiver; they gave him until Friday morning! I don't think a gnat could have gotten through. This trend continued well throughout the game. This makes for quite a change from season past when a Virginia Tech offensive line collapsed under the blitz of the Ramblin' Wreck, albeit under different coaching, but let's give credit where credit is due. Unfortunately for the Yellow Jackets, Josh Nesbitt left game due to injury and his backup quarterback, Tevin Washington entered the game. The third quarter went by fairly quietly as well. First, I want to credit the Yellow Jacket offense with their creativity. At this point in the game, I frequently noticed the camera man fooled by Georgia Tech offense and even wondering which runner had the ball myself. But the Hokie defense fortunately didn't go the way of the camera men and me. They made frequent stops on the triple option runs. Their intensity kept the Yellow Jacket's offensive line on edge. They committed false starts time and time again reacting to the Hokie defense's adjustments.

Moving into the fourth quarter, the Hokies finally earned a touchdown on a David Wilson rush. One note on David Wilson, I have to imagine that every Hokie fan has a new found appreciation for his abilities. I haven't really seen him shine like this, but he could have been Ryan Williams or Darren Evans with a different jersey number. After a few more changes of possession, the Hokies finally did something that I've been waiting seasons to watch them do. They methodically moved the ball down the field consistently with short but very controlled gains, and they capped it off with a go-ahead touchdown. Then, Georgia Tech dug deep and mustered a drive that tied the game with just over two minutes to go. Lane Stadium and viewers at home and in pubs could smell overtime, but then all of a sudden, David Wilson struck again. He ran the kickoff back 90 yards for a touchdown, a big play for the Hokies' special teams. The Yellow Jackets had to dig deep once again, and they did. A non-passing team took to the air, and they got themselves within striking distance. With roughly 20 seconds to go, quarterback Tevin Washington dropped back to pass into the endzone. Virginia Tech corner Rashad Carmichael lost his footing leaving his man briefly open, but that ended up as only a tease for Washington. As Washington released the pass into the endzone, Carmichael unleashed a burst of speed to make up the ground he lost to intercept the pass and end the game.

Overall, this is a huge win for the Hokies. It more strongly establishes them as the leading team of the ACC Coastal division. They also remain as the only team in the ACC without an in-conference loss. I'm still worried about two recurring problems that I think the Hokies need to overcome very soon. First, mistakes on special teams are costing them. Fumbles, blocked kicks, and missed field goals have hurt, and if they face off against an SEC or Big 12 team, they will punish the Hokies severely for those types of mistakes. Second, the Hokies slow start is a problem. If they start slow against an offensive powerhouse like an Ohio State, USC, or LSU, that's going to be too deep of a hole from which to dig out.

Next up is North Carolina in a little over a week.

LET'S GO HOKIES!

Game Preview - vs. Duke

Duke Blue Devils vs. Virginia Tech Hokies
Kickoff: 12:10 p.m.
Lane Stadium/Worsham Field
Blacksburg, VA


This Saturday, the Virginia Tech Hokies take on the Bluke Doo Devils. After coming out of the gate with an 0-2 record, the Virginia Tech Hokies have managed to win three straight and put themselves first in the Coastal division of the ACC, as well as earning a ranking of 25 in the BCS and 23 across the major polls. Each win has made the squad look a little better. The season to this point has a some interesting things to recognize buried deep in the stats. First, eight different players carried the football rushing against Wake Forest. This clearly delineates the depth at the tailback position. Five different players earned touchdowns against the Demon Deacons, including the backup quarterback on a received pass. In their last three contents, the Hokies have score more than 40 points. The Hokies earned 35 first downs against the Demon Deacons, the second most for any squad in the Virginia Tech history.

But all of this makes for no reason not to take Duke seriously. The Hokies, having won the last nine meetings, look to extend that streak to ten, but if the James Madison DUKES can take down the Hokies, so can the DUKE Blue Devils. And let's not forget that Duke gave Virginia Tech a pretty good scare last year where the Hokies only won 34-26.

So how's Duke looking these days? They earned their only win against Elon in their season opener. Since then, they've faced Alabama, Army, and a few ACC teams. They took a beating from Alabama and Army, but they have actually played competitively against their ACC opponents, most of whom beat them by a touchdown or less. Wake Forest stands as the only common opponent thus far between the two squads. Wake Forest edged them out in a high scoring shootout 54-48. Virginia Tech only scored 4 more points on the Demon Deacons than did the Dukes, albeit the Hokies had second string players come into the game late in the third quarter. Of course the respective defensive performances contrast greatly. Against Wake Forest, the Hokies allowed 21 points, the Blue Devils 54. Duke, however, comes off their most impressive performance in the season thus far, at least by measure of the final score. In their previous contest against Miami, they lost 28-13.

Turning to game stats, Duke has an impressive total pass yards figure. They rank second in the ACC with 1663 total yards. In rushing, they're second from the basement with only 731 total yards. On passing defense, Duke has allowed less than they've gained, 1342 total yards. Defending against rushing, they again rank second from the basement allowing 1265 total yards.

Duke's offensive strategy probably will key off the same aspect that has given them gains throughout the season thus far. Sophomore quarterback Sean Renfree has a pass completion rate of 57%, and he has a lot to do with the aforementioned total passing yards for the season thus far. Wide Receiver Conner Vernon leads the ACC in receiving yards at 581. Donavan Varner stands sixth in the ACC with 436 total yards in receiving. Renfree has two receivers as his reliable go-to guys. And it doesn't even stop there. Austin Kelly ranks eleventh in the ACC with 329 yards on the season. Expect Duke to take to the air when squaring off against the Hokie defense. They will likely go to the secondary quite frequently and try to take advantage of the Hokies' inexperience there. However, they may run into less inexperience than they expect. Mistakes and all, I'm thinking our Hokie corners and safeties have looked pretty good.

On the defensive side, they will probably count on a strategy of moderate containment under the gamble that their offense will be able to get into the endzone. They'll expect the Hokies to lean on the run game. The Hokies have plenty of depth there, and Duke's defense hasn't stopped the run against lesser opponents. Duke may simply concede some of the run yardage while focusing on the secondary to prevent consistent short gains and long gains in passing. The Hokies, this season and seasons past, have struggled establishing a consistent short to mid-range passing game, and most gains in that area usually happen as a result of quarterback Tyrod Taylor doing a little scrambling first. If a few bad calls or flukes go Duke's way, this strategy could keep them in the game all the way into the final minutes.

All in all, if the Hokies don't look past this game and focus on it, they really should get the win. But if they don't keep their eye on the ball, they could drop this one. Let's hope they've learned that lesson from week two of this season.

LET"S GO HOKIES!

Game Review - vs. Wake Forest

Saturday, the Virginia Tech Hokies took on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. Coming off some disappointing losses, the Deamon Deacon head coach Jim Grobe decided to mix things up by putting some second string players into the starting lineup. He had the goal of shaking things up on his squad to breathe some new life into his team. However, the first half of the game amounted to nothing less than a Hokie explosion offense. In the first half, they got into the endzone on all but one of their possessions. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor consistently made completions to receivers Jarratt Boykin, Danny Coale, and even backup quarterback Logan Thomas. Taylor's passing displayed his ability to scramble and move to find the open man. The defense held the Demon Deacons to three and out for their first two drives. They allowed 14 first half points. If this trend continues, the days of the Hokie slow start may well be behind us for the rest of this season, and good riddance if so!

Jayron Hosley has continued to impress me as a developing player in the last few games. First, he had a 58 yard return to set up the Hokies first touchdown. Several times playing corner back, he made difficult tips to prevent pass completions. He also made multiple single tackles, some even causing Wake Forest for a loss of yards. He did fumble one of his put returns, and it seems that having the dropsies was well spread across the Hokies. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor let one slip out of his hands on a quarterback rush. David Wilson also fumbled on a return, but in each case the Hokies recovered. Against a tougher defense, things may have turned out differently. The defense for the most part kept the Wake Forest offense at bay. Both of the Demon Deacon touchdowns resulted from long rushing plays. The first touchdown happened when the Hokie defensive line left a big hole and the safeties found themselves too far out of position to make the tackle. The second happened from a long run resulting from a missed tackle by defensive end Steven Friday.

The third quarter went fairly quietly with only one Wake Forest touchdown and one Virginia Tech field goal. By the third quarter's end, the Hokies controlled the game by a score of 52-21, and some of the Hokie second string had taken the field.

The fourth quarter went by even quieter as neither team scored a single point. Backup quarterback Logan Thomas began taking snaps. He stands a towering 6'6", and seems to have good poise. Thomas didn't really connect for any big plays during his time on the field, but he did show some ability to move the ball. He made a series of single yard gain rushes and found receivers for modest passing yardage gains. In the end he threw 3 completions in 8 attempts for 22 yards. His rushing amounted to 15 yards across 3 carries. He also successfully threw the ball out of bounds under pressure during several plays thus avoiding risky situations that could have led to turnovers. However, he didn't get Virginia Tech onto the board. Not having the agility and speed of Tyrod Taylor, he didn't avoid some of the pressure resulting from Hokie offensive line collapses, something the Hokies' current starting quarterback consistently displays the ability to do. Given that he hasn't seen much action as a backup this season, we can't be too critical of Thomas. I hope we get the opportunity to see him play a couple more quarters before the season ends.

The offense as a whole played well. They earned a total of 605 yards, went 12 for 17 on third down conversions, completed 63% of their passing, rushed for 291 yards, threw for 314 yards, and held possession for 41:26 of the game. This is a welcome change from games passed, even against an opponent like Wake Forest. The defense played well too, but there are still signs of development needed. Missed tackles, big holes in the defensive line, and out of position safeties allowed for some big gains in Wake Forest rushing. The defensive secondary, however, looked nearly air-tight. They only allow 4 completions on 17 attempts for a total of 92 yards. Special teams had a couple of big plays in punt returns, and given some of the mistakes we've seen by those squads this season, only a few positive surprises in this area is a welcome thing.

While overall this resonates as a good win, the Hokies didn't execute perfectly. The biggest lesson I think they need to take away is that they can't bobble the ball. The fumbles they had didn't result in loss of possession as they recovered all of them. However, should all of those fumbles have resulted in turnovers, we could have been looking at a very different game. Against a Miami and Georgia Tech defense, it's nearly certain that one, two, or even all three of those fumbles would have resulted in a change of possession. Turnovers can be the undoing of otherwise good teams, and the Hokie coaching staff needs to drill that into their players heads for the remainder of this season. That's critical if they want to keep their eye on the ACC championship.

LET"S GO HOKIES

Game Review - vs. North Carolina State

The Virginia Tech Hokies opened their contest against North Carolina State with an ATROCIOUS first quarter. The Hokie defense is young, inexperienced, and learning, so defensive coordinator Bud Foster's squad still has somewhat of an excuse. The offense, however, has no such excuse. It has seasoned veterans that should be carrying their experience from years past, and they made rookie mistakes. Let's run down some of the events. The Wolfpack took the first possession, and as they did they marched down the field 80 yards with seemingly little resistance to gain their first touchdown. The Hokie offense went three and out. NC State quarterback, Russel Wilson, on the subsequent drive put a long ball into the air that his receiver would have caught for a big gain should he have had one more half step on the pursuing Hokies. After third down, NC State punted the football, and the struggling Hokie special teams blew an excellent opportunity for a blocked punt and committed a penalty in the process. As the Hokies took over the ball, on second down, quarterback Tyrod Taylor handed the ball off to David Wilson, who ran the ball for a big 26 yard gain, and just when Hokie fans began to see some rays of light, Wilson fumbled causing a momentary flash of panic. Fortunately Dyrell Roberts fell onto the ball to maintain possession. But later on this same drive, tight end Andre Smith deflected a pass headed right into his hands up into the arms of a Wolfpack player resulting in an interception. On the ensuing drive, NC State quarterback found a wide open Jayron Hosley. With 6:23 left to go in the first, the Hokies already trailed 14 to nil. This may well amount to one of the worst quarters of play in all of Hokie football history, from any relative sense of expectations at least.

Early in the second quarter, things continued to go poorly for Virginia Tech. Defensive tackle Derrick Hopkins found himself right in front up a fumbled football but fell belly first causing it to wiggle away from him for an NC State recovery. The first second quarter Wolfpack drive resulted in a field goal, 17-0. On the offensive side of the ball, Tyrod Taylor's composure looked rattled. A number of his incomplete passes went straight into the dirt. And many of the incompletions thrown straight on target the Hokie receivers dropped. But about midway through the second quarter, the tempo began to shift. The Hokie defense began to make some key stops. Until this point in the game, NC Stage receivers had repeatedly won a series of "jump balls" to come down with big gains in passing yardage. But safety Antone Exum and cornerback Jayron Hosley made several key tips preventing Wolfpack pass receptions. After generating a little offense, the Hokies closed out half by getting themselves onto the board making the score 7-17 with a pass on the run by Taylor and brilliantly caught by tight end Andre Smith, thus more than making up for his earlier deflected interception.

The third quarter looked more promising for the Hokies all of a sudden when David Wilson ran back on the kickoff for a 92 yard touchdown. But another special teams blunder of a missed extra point took the wind out their sails. On the Wolfpack's next possession, they punched another touchdown into the endzone making the score 24-13. But the Hokies had the resolve so as not to go quietly. Darren Evans reminded us of what we missed in the 2009 season due to his injury. He ran 54 yards for a touchdown, and Tyrod Taylor found Danny Coale for a 2 point conversion to compensate for the missed extra point. This put the score at 21-24 in favor the Wolfpack, but the Hokies had the momentum. NC State knew they needed to get onto the board, so they put together a hard fought drive, but the Hokie's maturing defense started playing like a mature defense. They held the Wolfpack to a field goal. The Hokies ended the thrid quarter sitting within striking distance of taking the lead with one possession.

Early in the fourth quarter, the Hokies took their first lead of the day with once again a pass from Taylor to Smith. When NC State took possession, they once again settled for a field goal two thirds the way through the fourth quarter. Their fans were making noise, and their team members were pumped. But you would never have known it from the composure of the Hokies as they took the field after Wilson returned the kickoff to the Virginia Tech 24 yardline. Evans and Taylor exchanged a series of moderate range rushes to keep the Hokies drive going, even though the offensive plays seemed to be breaking down. Then, Taylor found wide receiver Jarratt Boykin at midfield, and he brilliantly ran 39 yards for a touchdown, 28-34 Hokies!. At this point, Hokie head coach Frank Beamer called for a 2 point conversion play. Now, this could make you wonder why, but consider the difference between a 4 point lead and a 6 point lead. With respect to the opposing team needing to get into the paint, nothing differs, but on the off chance that the opposing team DOES score a touchdown, a 6 point lead gives the Hokies a last ditch effort to block the extra point. With 1:27 remaining and all three timeouts left, the Wolfpack didn' t have a second to spare, but the ability to manage the clock. But once again, the Hokie defense put on the pressure and forced an interception. One more Hokie touchdown capped off the final score at 41-30 Hokies.

I'm starting to see a localized pattern in the Hokies' performance this season. By that I mean that in each game, the Hokies play a horrible first quarter in ever respect, but they improve steadily throughout the game. (Of course, we have to not consider the JMU game, though.) First and foremost, the Hokies must correct this. They've got four games under their belts now, and coming out slow because of players don't their heads 100% in the game has to be a thing of past from here onward. Second, I'm wondering if we can apply this localized pattern of game-by-game to the global scope of the entire season. That is to ask (not predict!) whether the Hokies will only improve their season. I hope that the case. More on that may come in a later post.

The defense, though still inexperienced, making mistakes, and developing, show moments of brilliance in their play that indicate good things to come. The offense, however, really has no excuse. They need to start executing consistently like the seasoned verterans they are. All Hokie fans offer considerable and rightful criticism of offensive coordinator Bryan Stinespring, but a lot of mistakes of today's game really rest squarely on the shoulders of the players. Even Danny Coale, who's hands I've past sworn are coated in glue, dropped some he should have caught today. The special teams mistakes have become somewhat commonplace. The win definitely gives Hokie fans a good feeling coming out of today's college football contests, but that game really should have ended at 41-17, not 41-30. But that's not to say the forward momentum of two wins won't carry our Hokies into greener pastures.

Mad Jay is still mad, EhhTee is still running the stats, and I'm still full of hope. Not too much is different here in TSF Land. Our boys have a lot of season ahead of themselves. Even after their 0-2 start, don't give up on a great finish yet!

LET'S GO HOKIES!

Game Review - vs. East Carolina

Finally!

Hokie fans began to exhale a big sigh of relief when Virginia Tech bean to pull way from the East Carolina Pirates on Saturday afternoon. However, this game falls far short of the execution and level of play needed to take this team to big victories down the road. First, a game summary, and then the analysis.

Game Summary

The ECU pirates sensed a wounded beast in our Hokies after a disappointing loss to Boise State and a demoralizing loss to James Madison University. And with blood in the water of that sort, an energized ECU squad coming off of two big wins had the wind at their backs to hand the Hokies yet another defeat. The underdogs came out swinging and at early points of the game looked capable of delivering a knock out punch.

Comparable to the game against Boise State, against ECU the Virginia Tech defense allowed 17 points in just a little over a quarter of play. During ECU's first two drives of the game, they marched down the field making the Hokie defense appear hapless to stop them from moving the ball. That earned the Pirates a field goal and a touchdown on each drive while having shut down the Hokie offense. Then, Virginia tech responded with a 60 yard drive resulting in a touchdown run into the endzone by Ryan Williams so as not to go quietly through the first quarter.

Upon the opening of the second quarter ECU once again punched in another touchdown off a 7 yard pass from quarterback Dominique Davis to WR Dwayne Harris. On the ensuing VT drive, Tyrod Taylor passed to Jarrett Boykin who caught the ball and subsequently fumbled it only most fortunately such that the Hokies recovered. The play went sloppily for the Hokies, although they ended up with good field position. Ryan Williams left the game early with a hamstring injury. Stumbling their way through the rest of the half, the Hokies put up one more touchdown to close out the half trailing by 3 points.

During the second half, the Hokies took to better form, but before they did Darren Evans fumbled on the Virginia Tech 39 yardline. The defense held the Pirates to a 41 yard field goal on its ensuing drive. The Hokie offense responded with two touchdowns, both on runs by David Wilson.

In the fourth quarter, the Hokies exploded and put on the show that college football fans had expected to see during this weeks game and last weeks game. The defense started getting to the ECU quarterback, opposing drives resulting in punts, and pressure lead to thrown interceptions. Rashad Carmichael's interception lead to a 68 yard run for a touchdown, and Tyrod Taylor completed a touchdown pass of 69 yards to Jarret Boykin. The Hokies ended the day with a 49 to 27 victory.

Analysis

Obviously, every Hokie fan exhaled a big sigh of relief during the fourth quarter when we realized that our boys wouldn't be going down to 0-3 on the season. After already experiencing the worst season opening in decades, fans rallied behind our Hokies in the hopes of salvaging the rest of the season. But despite this win the Hokies play over the past three games raises some very serious concerns, some of them recycled from seasons past, but one in particular that's very new.

Let me start with the newest and most disconcerting. The Hokie defense hasn't been the terror of seasons past against their opponents. They have a lot of new starters on that side of the ball, but that's never really been a big concern in the past because defensive coordinator Bud Foster knows how to whip his troops into shape to make the lean, mean fighting machine we've all come to know as Hokie defense. The defense has allowed 383, 235, and 361 yards respectively in the first three contests of this season. Against top 25 teams, those make for respectable numbers, but considering contests against ECU and JMU, those numbers are disconcerting. The amount of points scored totals 81 thus far this season, another number the Hokies need to improve. They way the BSU and ECU offenses marched themselves down the field in their respective first quarters of play makes an onlooking Hokie fan want to bury his head into his hands and bite his nails. The defense has traditionally been the rock that keeps the Hokies competitive throughout the season, and the need for that isn't going to go away this season. I hope this breaks down to inexperience that Bud Foster is molding into the defense that we're used to watching as a dominating force on the football field. My suspicion is that we'll see growing improvement, so I'm optimistic that we'll see our Hokie defense come to form. I just hope it happens soon enough so that Virginia Tech can persevere through the ACC in-conference schedule.

On the other side of the ball, we've seen some of the same problems on the field. Sorry to keep beating this dead horse as we do here at TSF so often, but it's a fact. The first thing I noticed was the playcalling. There's a lot of aspects the playcalling to criticize, but I want to focus on one in particular. During this game and prior games of the season, the passing game continuously has gone for the "home run" pass, sometimes as a called play and sometimes as the result of a play breaking down. Sometimes it makes sense to pull a long pass to catch a defense off guard or in times of sheer desperation, but I see the Hokie offense going to this too often. Instead they need to focus on more frequently executing the short pass. It plays into controlling the pace of the drive and the clock, which is extremely important in the later minutes of a close game. Also, I'm uncomfortable with the number of times our quarterback has had to rush to escape the danger of a sack. It's great that Tyrod Taylor's foot speed give the Hokie offense that option, but the frequency with which he has to use it worries me. Quarterback rushing may do well against the non-BCS conference teams, and even against most of the teams in the ACC, but it won't win an ACC championship and it certainly won't win a major BCS bowl. Of these broken down scrambling plays, Taylor had nine rushes for 32 yards. Against a more formidable defense, any of those nine plays could have resulted in big losses for the Hokie offense. Given the experience and talent of this Hokie offense, these problems should be in their rear view mirror, but we'll do what we do as fans every season in this regard, hope that it gets better.

The Hokies open their ACC season against Boston College next week. The's a lot of season left to salvage, and a big win against the Eagles could put the season on the right track towards intra-conference success.

LET'S GO HOKIES

Game Review - vs. North Carolina

VS

Just two short games ago, the Hokies held a number 4 ranking in the polls, and they had put together a great streak of wins against some quality opponents. Virginia Tech fans saw only one major contest ahead of them in Georgia Tech. After that, they could hope for smooth sailing until reaching the ACC championship game and with a victory there maybe even an arguable claim to the National Championship Bowl Game. A loss to Georgia Tech put a major setback on this great season, and now a loss to North Carolina has brought the season down to the point of simply striving for bowl eligibility. Hokie fans don't find this late season skid as terribly unfamiliar. I can think back to a number of seasons where the Hokies held a single digit ranking in the late weeks of the season but lost to an opponent over which the pundits had deemed them as favorites to win thus shattering fans' hopes of a major bowl appearance. That has happened this season, and it stings especially much because I think most Hokie fans agree that this season's team in particular does have the potential to play against any of the top 5 ranked teams. But as much pain as it brings, I go on with the review...

Let's recap the offense's performance. Virginia Tech opens the game with two plays gaining 45 yards between a Ryan Williams rush and a reception by Jarrett Boykin. Boykin then fumbles after his reception for a turnover to the Tarheels. Believe it or not, the Hokies made this as their best offensive drive of the quarter. The subsequent two drives would lead to a punt and then a turnover on downs. The second quarter offered more of the same. Virginia Tech went for two three-and-out's and another turnover on downs. All the while, the UNC offense had managed to put a touchdown onto the board. The Hokies went into the locker room scoreless. Over the past few games, we've watched Virginia Tech offensive coordinator Bryan Stinespring make some big strides with this offense, but his squad failed to make the adjustments needed to get into the endzone. That is absolutely unacceptable for a program aiming for success in the bowl season. I don't want to take away anything from the 'Heel's defense; let's congratulate them on the success. Their defense ranks as second best in the ACC, in points per game, trailing only Clemson. In yards per game, they rank first. The real possibility exists that the Hokie offense hasn't faced a defense this strong since the season opener against Alabama or against Nebraska.

The Hokie defense on the other hand, played a marvelous first half. They forced three consecutive three-and-outs, one of which happened right after the early momentum shifting fumble by Boykin. They only broke down on one drive allowing UNC to march 84 yards down the field for a touchdown.

The Hokie offense in the second half finally started to pick up. After the defense forced another UNC three-and-out, they marched down the field 82 yards to put up a touchdown and even the score. But the very next drive, the 'Heels put on another long sustained drive of their own for 84 yards to take the lead. At that point, we had begun to witness the Virginia Tech defense start to falter. The third worst offense in the ACC had just conducted two 84 yard drives resulting in touchdowns against Virginia Tech. All the while, the Hokies had kept themselves very much in the game. The defense came up big with Rashad Charmichael intercepting UNC quarterback TJ Yates' pass at the UNC 10 yard line, which he ran down to the UNC 5. This set up a quick Hokie touchdown to draw the score to 17-14 in favor of the Hokies. But on a crucial possession the Hokie defense allowed UNC to pile on one more long drive of 78 yards, finishing that off with a field goal. With the score tied, Virginia Tech had a short gap of time to get a late score to win the ball game. The offense turned to the explosive Darren Evans replacement, Ryan Williams, who fumbled the ball in Hokie territory. With only 2:02 left to play, the 'Heels effectively burned the clock down to the final seconds and kicked the winning field goal.

When I look back on this game summary, I think about the major failures of the Hokies. First, and foremost, the offense cannot play an entire half without putting points on the board. Just for sake of morale for the fans and the defense, they have to demonstrate they ability to get within scoring distance and execute. I restrain some of this criticism considering that UNC has one of the best defense's in the ACC, arguably the best depending on which stats you want to emphasize, but I can't restrain it too much due to their strength of schedule. They have not faced opponents such as Miami, Nebraska, and Alabama. The Hokie offense failed to adjust to UNC's pressure, and the successive three-and-out possessions underscore that. The lopsided time of possession, 36:14 to 23:46 in favor of UNC, also underscores that even further, and it translates to how well the defense plays. A defense on the field for that amount of time has to overcome fatigue and exhaustion. Allowing three drives ranging between 78 ad 84 yards to put points on the board means playing well against an offense of Florida, USC, Alabama, or LSU for example, but when the defense allows those kinds of drives by an offense that ranks third worst in the ACC, that means Bud Foster's squad didn't make the necessary adjustments. I have full confidence that Bud Foster can correct the problems, but I do find it unsettling that this defense has not played like the one Hokie fans have come to know and love for two games in a row now.

At this point in the season, we Hokie fans don't have a high profile bowl game to which we can look forward, but our squad can still make this into a good finish and earn a bid to play against another out-of-conference powerhouse team who has likewise had a few bumps in the road for their season as well. Let's get behind our Orange and Maroon and cheer for a good finish.

LET”S GO HOKIES!

Game Review - vs. Boston College

VS.

Something has started to happen with Virginia Tech's offense, and Hokie fans welcome the change. Tyrod Taylor suddenly starts playing the position of quarterback displaying some talent that we haven't really seen before. Offensive coordinator Bryan Stinespring's playcalling has somewhat started to make sense. On Saturday, the Hokies earned an impressive victory over a struggling Boston College Eagles team.

Although struggling this season, the Eagles certainly amount to much more than an assumed victory, especially after the narrow scoring margin against Duke in last week's game and the Eagle's win over Florida State. Virginia Tech hands them only their second loss of the season, and even with this loss, they still stand a good chance of winning the ACC Atlantic division.

Let's take a look at Virginia Tech's display of offense during Saturday's game. Tyrod Taylor threw for roughly a 70% completion rate and for a 126 yards. Based on the type of the offense I watched and fluidity with which they moved the ball down the field, I think these statistics don't necessarily reflect how well Taylor and his offense performed. Taylor has always demonstrated the ability to scramble, but in the last three games, he has scrambled like an elite quarterback rather than somebody simply looking for the opportunity to rush. No play during this game better exemplifies that than his touchdown pass to wide receiver Danny Coale. On a third and nineteen play, the Eagle defense had broken through protection and put pressure on Taylor. Taylor scrambled, evaded tackles, and from a somewhat awkward position twisted to throw a perfectly placed pass to Coale cutting into the endzone. Taylor also connected with his receivers on some very long and well placed passes, such as Taylor's forty-one yard completion to Jarrett Boykin. Also, an eighty yard touchdown pass from backup quarterback Ju Ju Clayton to wide receiver Marcus Davis left a good image in fans' minds of what lies ahead in the post-Taylor seasons yet to come.

Another pleasant surprise came in the relative loyalty of Stienspring's playcalling to the running game. Number one tailback Darren Evan's injury has not slowed down the running game. The Hokies have proven to have a lot of depth in that position. Ryan Williams has exploded in ways nobody outside of the clubhouse could have predicted. David Wilson and Josh Oglesby made a few carries as well to tack a few yards on top of those gained by Williams. The team ran for a combined 235 yards of rushing. Williams alone ran for 159 of those yards. The numbers don't tell whole story, however. During early games of this season and games of seasons' prior, such numbers resulted from successfully executed plays falling in between successive three-and-outs. But these running plays consistently gained first downs and moved the ball down the field with precise execution.

Only having access to radio for the first half of the game last week, I didn't really have a complete sense of how the game against Duke progressed, but the scoring updates I got on my cell phone made me feel quite uneasy, especially considering the point differential at the game's end. But the Hokie defense performed excellently against Boston College. The defense held Eagle rushing to just 45 yards and passing to 118 yards. The frequency with which the Hokie defense reached Boston College quarterbacks Mike Marscovetra and Dave Shinskie impressed me. To top things off cornerback Rashad Carmichael caught an interception and ran it back for a touchdown. The defense definitely showed up in full force for this game.

I've got a good feeling about Hokie football right now. I hope that I'm not simply setting myself up for disappointment, because we've all felt that sinking in our hearts when our beloved Hokies crumbled when we didn't expect it. Overall, however, I sense a buzz amongst the team and fans that I haven't sensed in a while.

LET'S GO HOKIES!

Game Preview - vs. Duke

VS.

Virginia Tech (6) at Duke
12:00 PM ET, October 3, 2009
Wallace Wade Stadium , DURHAM, NC
ESPN360.com

This Saturday, Virginia Tech squares off against the Duke Blue Devils in Durham, NC. The Hokie coaching staff has publicly stated they won't look past this game, and I find that reassuring because for those games that you do can lead to trailing late in the fourth quarter while fans burry their heads into their hands asking how things got to such a state. Yes, Duke comes from a pair of states that have never produced a sustained powerhouse in Division I college football. Yes, Duke only completed two passes against Virginia Tech in last season's game. Yes, Virginia Tech turned the ball over five times in the 2008 contest, and still won handily. But you can't add all that together and come to a conclusion that the Hokies can just take Duke lightly and look onward to later contests against Boston College and Georgia Tech.

First, as MadJay noted in his game review against Miami, Virginia Tech's offense displayed a significantly positive shift in its performance. Playing Duke gives the perfect opportunity to keep that momentum going. I haven't reached the point to where I will credit offensive coordinator Bryan Steinspring because, as MadJay also notes, he may well have stuck with the running game against Miami because the weather left him very little choice to do otherwise. If the play calling sustains at that level through the Boston College and Georgia Tech games, I may drift more towards giving him some credit. But something did strike me as very positive, and I noticed it starting to happen during the Nebraska game. Tyrod Taylor has begun playing his position as more of a quarterback who happens to have great athleticism rather than as a great athlete playing the role of a quarterback. He looks for the pass and exhibits patience to find an open man. In seasons prior and even during earlier games in this season, he looked for the pass and if he didn't quickly a target, he went straight to the run. To state things fairly, he didn't always have the luxury of time because of missed blocks, but overall I notice that when the pocket breaks down, he has begun to roll away from pressure to buy time looking for an open man instead of reacting by sprinting for yardage seemingly in desperation. Don't get me wrong. He still executes well when rushing for yardage, but he makes his decision of when to rush with more calculation. Besides, we don't want our number one quarterback taking punishing hits during a rush that he doesn't have to sustain. During the Nebraska game, I started to notice this shift in his play, although many pass attempts in drops as well as overthrown and under-thrown passes, at least until the game's final drive. Against Miami, considering the pouring rain, he executed his passing game very well. While the running game dominated the offense's play calling, the passing game still racked up 98 yards and one touchdown.

Why do dwell on this point? I do so because I hope that he continues to exhibit this type of play on Saturday. To continue to win against teams from other BCS conferences, Taylor's play must continue to improve his passing game, and I think he may have gotten well on his way to doing so.

What to the Hokies face on Saturday? Duke's offensive line showcases some size in Kyle Hill, Jarrod Holt, Mitchell Lederman, Brian Moore, and Bryan Morgan. All stand well above six feet; Lenderman himself stands a towering 6”8'! Thaddeus Lewis takes the snaps for the Blue Devils, and his numbers don't look too bad. He has thrown for 58%
completion rate and 783 yards, although he hasn't faced a defense quite like that of the Hokies. Patrick Kurunwune and Desmond Scott have caught for a total of 221 combined yards. Receivers Johnny Williams and Austin Kelley have very comparable numbers rushing for a combined total of 492 yards.

Accross the ACC, Duke's defense ranks ninth allowing 25.3 points per game. Their offense, however, in the ACC ranks fourth scoring 29.0 points per game, just shy of Virginia Tech's 30.8. Upsets can happen, and Duke very well could make the front page of espn.com on Saturday shocking college football fans with an upset. The Hokies should win this game, and have earned the status of favorites for good reason. At the same time, this contest offers opportunity to exercise some improvements in the offense's performance to set the stage for games yet to come. Let's hope our Hokies earn a good win and execute well on offense!

Comparing the Automatic BCS Bid Conferences

At the end of the 2007 College Football season as well as at the beginning of the 2008 season, many of the pundits argued the ACC and the Big East scored the lowest in terms of collective conference strength, and they substantiated such arguments with solid facts. The ACC had performed atrociously in each of its BCS bowl appearances since the inception of the BCS. The only victory came at the hands of a Florida State win over Virginia Tech, who played in the Big East at the time and now plays in the ACC.

You can't help but cut the Big East some slack in this department. That conference has recently undergone a weakening by three of its powerhouse teams migrating the ACC: Boston College, Miami, and of course Virginia Tech. Considering the challenges that laid ahead of the Big East at the time of that transition, I think the Big East has made a good showing to at least hang on to their automatic BCS bid status.

The ACC, however, has no such excuse. At the time of the transition, the pundits gobbled up the hype and in some cases even began stacking the ACC next to the mighty SEC. The seasons that passed thereafter lead to quite a disappointment in how the ACC performed out of conference and during the bowl season. At the beginning of this season, I stated in a game preview that Virginia Tech should make its number one goal to win in the post season, wherever the post season took them. And of course by that I also suggested that all ACC teams should have had that goal. I have watched the ACC's out of conference performance this season very closely in the hopes of seeing a path towards the conference truly earning the status of which the pundits initially (and unduly) anointed the ACC at the time of its expansion.

I can't make it through a single posting on TSF without citing statistics, and I make no exception for this posting. I've compiled a set of standings in terms of wins and losses between each of the automatic bid conferences. I'm not trying to exclude non-automatic bid conferences for any reason other than this involved a lot of busy work. I don't have the fancy dancy searchable databases at the fingertips of professional commentators. I just compiled data for the automatic bid conferences because it seems a decent, although not perfect, way to compare these conferences. I did some of this by hand, so I apologize up front if there's a couple of errors. But for the most part, they have good data.

Overall Automatic Bid Conference Standings

Conference    GP Total    W Total    L Total    W %

SEC                 19         11          8    58%
Big 12              22         12         10    55%
Pac 10              15          8          7    53%
ACC                 26         13         13    50%
Big East            17          8          9    47%
Big Ten             16          6         10    38%

Let's first examine the overall record of the conferences. These standings include regular season and bowl season inter-conference play. To no real surprise, the SEC comes out on top, and the Big 12 comes in a close second. One surprise lies in who comes in third and fourth and by how many percentage points. This stat shows the Pac 10 to have a very good showing, only trailing the Big 12 by two percentage points. I think we can safely say that Pac 10 fans have been right call foul and claim themselves as an underrated conference this season. The ACC doesn't look too bad either, but this season's performance definitely leave some room for improvement. The Big East still has some headway to make to reestablishing themselves amongst the other automatic-bid'ers, and the Big Ten is hanging down in the basement. These standings give us a good birds eye view about how the conferences have performed with respect to each other, but let's take a further look at this in some different contexts.

Automatic Bid Conference Standings Regular Season Only

Conference  GP Reg Season  W Reg Season  L Reg Season  W %

ACC                    19            11             8  58%
SEC                    14             7             7  50%
Big Ten                10             5             5  50%
Big 12                 16             8             8  50%
Big East               14             7             7  50%
Pac 10                 11             4             7  36%

Here, we have the conference standings for games only played in the regular season, and this should make ACC fans proud. The ACC leads this category by 8 percentage points over the mighty SEC! I did expect that the ACC would perform better in this category than the previous, but I didn't think they'd come in first, and much less by 8 points. The SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, and Big East all tie for the second, and the Pac 10 trails by a whopping 16 percentage points in last place. Maybe I need to retract that statement above about the Pac 10 fans saying their conference is underrated.

Overall Automatic Bid Conference Standings Bowl Season Only

Conf     GP Bowl Season  W Bowl Season  L Bowl Season  W %

Pac 10                4              4              0  100%
SEC                   5              4              1  80%
Big 12                4              3              1  75%
Big East              3              1              2  33%
ACC                   7              2              5  29%
Big Ten               8              2              6  25%

These standings only include bowl season contests. Continuing the Pac 10's schizophrenic storyline, they blow everybody else out of the water by running the table in all their bowl season games. That's impressive. So my conclusion about the Pac 10 is they deserve the award for most streaky conference amongst the automatic bid'ers. The SEC of course still holds it's own, along with the Big 12, but the percentages drop drastically after that. The Big East, ACC, and Big Ten performed quite poorly in the bowl season. The ACC has had this as an Achilles heel since the inception of the BCS. Virginia Tech did its part this year, so we Hokie fans have good reason to be proud. Hopefully, we'll get another bowl victory next year, but against a more reputable conference like the SEC or the Big 12. But what happened to Miami? I think their game against Cal may have made for the worst display of clock management, in both halves, that I have every witnessed in my entire football (college or pro) watching life! Then, Boston College drops one to Vanderbilt? I know Vanderbuild hails from the SEC, but come on, they aren't LSU or Auburn. Georgia Tech definitely had their hands full against LSU, but they should have at least made it into the end zone. Clemson put up a good fight against Nebraska, but couldn't pull out the W. But let's hand it to Florida State for punishing Wisconsin for bailing on the Hokies' inter-conference matchup. Then again, the game that replaced it, versus Nebraska, went pretty well. Getting back to the standings, the ACC played the inverse role of the Pac 10 this season: great in the regular season and poor in the bowl season. If the ACC wants to earn more recognition, it needs to improve its bowl season play considerably. Performing will in the regular season definitely has its value, but the bowl season has the most visibility and the most emphasized chatter between the pundits.

Automatic Bid Conference Standings Overall
excluding points differential of a single possession

Conference  GP Total  W Total  L Total  W %

ACC               18       11        7  61%
SEC               15        9        6  60%
Big Ten           10        5        5  50%
Big 12            17        8        9  47%
Pac 10            10        4        6  40%
Big East          10        3        7  30%

So I decided to list the standings of the automatic bid'ers again, but this time with a twist. I removed all the games that ended in a score differential of one possession. Think about this. Those games really could have gone either way, and the clock played a significant role in who earned the W. So in this category, the ACC just barely squeaks by the SEC with the highest win percentage. This shows that the ACC, despite some key losses, may have the poise to come out on top of all the other conferences if it makes a few adjustments and pulls out wins in those close games that go down to the final possession. I don't mean to undermine the value of a team that demonstrates time after time that it can win the close games. That is very important, and let's face, it makes for the most exiting type of football. All this stated, the ACC just may have a break out season in 2009 or 2010.

Automatic Bid Conference Standings Regular Season Only
excluding points differential of a single possession

Conf     GP Reg Season  W Reg Season  L Reg Season   W %

Big Ten              4             4             0  100%
ACC                 10             8             2   80%
SEC                 10             5             5   50%
Big 12               9             4             5   44%
Pac 10              11             4             5   36%
Big East             9             2             7   22%

    
Automatic Bid Conference Standings Bowl Season Only
excluding points differential of a single possession

Conf      GP Bowl Season  W Bowl Season  L Bowl Season   W %

Big East               1              1              0  100%
Pac 10                 1              1              0  100%
SEC                    4              3              1   75%
Big Ten                6              2              4   33%
ACC                    3              1              2   33%
Big 12                 1              0              1    0%

In conclusion, I think the ACC did make a positive step towards strengthening the conference name. A strong regular season of inter-conference play definitely has boosted the perception of strength of the ACC. The poor bowl season performance will most likely overshadow the strong regular season, however, but there is a positive side to that. If you know your conference has strengthened, but you opponents don't quite recognize it, they may not see you coming, and that may be worth a major upset or two in '09 in favor of the ACC.

Lastly, this table includes all the games I used in these standings for your reference. And as always, LET'S GO HOKIES!

Match	Winner	Loser	Season	W Points	L Points	Differential
Iowa vs. Pittsburgh	Big East	Big Ten	Regular	21	20	1
West Virginia vs. North Carolina	Big East	ACC	Bowl	31	30	1
Mississippi vs. Wake Forest	ACC	Big 12	Regular	30	28	2
Vanderbilt vs. Boston College	SEC	ACC	Bowl	16	14	2
Tennessee vs. UCLA	SEC	Pac 10	Regular	27	24	3
Kansas vs. South Florida	Big East	SEC	Regular	37	34	3
Vanderbilt vs. Duke	ACC	SEC	Regular	10	7	3
Baylor vs. Connecticut	Big East	Big 12	Regular	31	28	3
Pittsburgh vs. Oregon State	Pac 10	Big East	Bowl	3	0	3
Ohio State vs. Texas	Big 12	Big Ten	Bowl	24	21	3
West Virginia vs. Colorado	Big 12	Big East	Regular	17	14	3
Rutgers vs. NC State	Big East	ACC	Regular	33	29	4
Northwestern vs. Duke	Big Ten	ACC	Regular	24	20	4
Nebraska vs. Clemson	Big 12	ACC	Bowl	26	21	5
Virginia Tech vs. Nebraska	ACC	Big 12	Regular	35	30	5
Oregon vs. Purdue	Pac 10	Big Ten	Regular	32	26	6
Miami vs. California	Pac 10	ACC	Bowl	24	17	7
Michigan State vs. California	Pac 10	Big Ten	Regular	38	31	7
Northwestern vs. Missouri	Big 12	Big Ten	Bowl	30	23	7
California vs. Maryland	ACC	Pac 10	Regular	35	27	8
Kansas State vs. Louisville	Big East	Big 12	Regular	38	29	9
Oklahoma vs. Florida	SEC	Big 12	Bowl	24	14	10
Illinois vs. Missouri	Big 12	Big Ten	Regular	52	42	10
Oregon vs. Oklahoma State	Pac 10	Big 12	Bowl	42	31	11
Iowa State vs. Iowa	Big Ten	Big 12	Regular	17	5	12
Michigan State vs. Georgia	SEC	Big Ten	Bowl	24	12	12
Vanderbilt vs. Wake Forest	ACC	SEC	Regular	23	10	13
Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati	ACC	Big East	Bowl	20	7	13
Penn State vs. USC	Pac 10	Big Ten	Bowl	38	24	14
Kansas vs. Oklahoma	Big 12	SEC	Regular	45	31	14
Georgia vs. Arizona State	SEC	Pac 10	Regular	27	10	17
South Carolina vs. Clemson	ACC	SEC	Regular	31	14	17
Auburn vs. West Virginia	Big East	SEC	Regular	34	17	17
Miami vs. Texas A&M	ACC	Big 12	Regular	41	23	18
Colorado vs. Florida State	ACC	Big 12	Regular	39	21	18
Syracuse vs. Northwestern	Big Ten	Big East	Regular	30	10	20
Iowa vs. South Carolina	Big Ten	SEC	Bowl	31	10	21
Minnesota vs. Kansas	Big 12	Big Ten	Bowl	42	21	21
Miami vs. Florida	SEC	ACC	Regular	26	3	23
Alabama vs. Clemson	SEC	ACC	Regular	34	10	24
Kentucky vs. Louisville	SEC	Big East	Regular	27	2	25
Connecticut vs. North Carolina	ACC	Big East	Regular	38	12	26
Cincinnati vs. Oklahoma	Big 12	Big East	Regular	52	26	26
Oklahoma State vs. Washington State	Big 12	Pac 10	Regular	39	13	26
Washington State vs. Baylor	Big 12	Pac 10	Regular	45	17	28
Wisconsin vs. Florida State	ACC	Big Ten	Bowl	42	13	29
Florida vs. Florida State	SEC	ACC	Regular	45	15	30
Oregon State vs. Penn State	Big Ten	Pac 10	Regular	45	14	31
Mississippi State vs. Georgia Tech	ACC	Big 12	Regular	38	7	31
North Carolina vs. Rutgers	ACC	Big East	Regular	44	12	32
Ohio State vs. USC	Pac 10	Big Ten	Regular	35	3	32
South Carolina vs. NC State	SEC	ACC	Regular	34	0	34
Georgia Tech vs. LSU	SEC	ACC	Bowl	38	3	35
Virginia vs. Connecticut	Big East	ACC	Regular	45	10	35
Oklahoma vs. Washington	Big 12	Pac 10	Regular	55	14	41
Arkansas vs. Texas	Big 12	SEC	Regular	52	10	42
Penn State vs. Syracuse	Big Ten	Big East	Regular	55	13	42
Virginia vs. USC	Pac 10	ACC	Regular	52	7	45