After week two's loss James Madison, no college football fan could make a strong case for Virginia Tech's appearance in a BCS bowl. In fact, even some Hokie faithful began to have chills of a bowl ineligible season, but here we are about to watch our Hokies compete against Stanford for the Orange Bowl title. I can't claim to have had full confidence in the Hokies running the table in their ACC schedule, but as frustrated as the loss to JMU made me, I didn't see the Hokies dropping too many more contests. Part of me even had a sense of relief that our worst losses lay behind us. And as we've seen thus far, the recurring theme has been that of a late start, for both many individual games and the season as a whole. Our Hokies have had more than just a few poor first quarter performances followed by playing great football thereafter. This theme and the level of play Virginia Tech football has exhibited has me optimistic about the upcoming contest on January 3. I fully expect the Hokies to keep the opposition fans on edge throughout the night.
Let's take a look at the Hokies' opponent, the Stanford Cardinal. Wake Forest is the only common opponent shared between the two teams this season. Each team slaughtered the Deamon Deacons, doubling their score in each respective game. The Cardinals play in the Pac 10 conference, soon to don the name Pac 12 with newcomer teams. To establish the caliber of the Stanford team, I start with analyzing their conference. Their conference includes the likes of the USC Trojans, Oregon Ducks, and UCLA Bruins. Historically, fans of the Pac 10 have griped of the college football commentary world consistently under-rating their conference, and this claim has some ground on which to stand. For example, in the 2008-09 bowl season, the Pac 10 cleaned up with a 5-0 record. But then in the 2009-10 bowl season, the Pac 10 went 2-5. If you trace back over the inter-conference play, you'll notice that the pendulum swings. This year, the Pac 10 has gone 11-9 in their inter-conference play. Considering their win percentage, they place fourth amongst conferences that had some team in the top 25 sometime this season. The ACC ranks seventh in this way. This year, Oregon is all the rage, earning a number two ranking and some weeks holding the number one spot. Oregon has handed Stanford their only loss. In all comparison, the Pac 10 stacks up as a tougher conference this season than the ACC. By that barometer, Stanford placing second in the conference while losing only to a team headed to the National Championship Game makes them a formidable opponent and the favorite to win on Jan 3.
Let's take a top-down look at the Cardinal. Stanford head Coach Jim Harbaugh took over the team in December of 2006 and has since steadily improved the program to reach their current BCS bowl bid. In his first season as head coach, his squad defeated a number one ranked USC, the favorite by 41 points. This season, Sanford has won most of its games by a definitive margin. Only Arizona State and USC handed them a win margin of less than a touchdown. In each of these games the Cardinal scored their winning points in the fourth quarter, which shows they can finish strong in a close game. Stanford exemplifies the West Coast offense by ranking second the Pac 10 in passing with 3076 yards on the season. They've put up 2532 rushing yards and also ranked second in the conference in that category. The Stanford defense ranks first in the Pac 10 allowing 2404 passing yards, 1515 rushing yards, ~18 points per game, and ~327 yards per game. Virginia Tech, on the other hand, doesn't have numbers quite as good. The Hokies have allowed 2591 yards and 1936 yards in passing and rushing respectively. On offense, the Hokies have generated 2628 and 2716 yards in passing and rushing respectively. And those numbers come from contests within a weaker conference. One caveat: the Hokies' contest against Boise State does make their non-conference schedule notably more challenging.
Now, let's turn to some individual elements within the Cardinal. Heisman candidate and quarterback Andrew Luck finished second to Cam Newton of Auburn for the trophy. Luck has broken the school's season record of touchdown passes with 28. He has completed ~70% of his passes this season, while throwing for 3051 yards. Standing at 6'4" and weighing in at 235 lbs., the Junior quarterback is no picnic to tackle. His offense has allowed only five sacks (of him) on the season. Luck has a lot of depth in his receiver core, but one clearly stands out from the rest. Wide receiver Doug Baldwin has caught for 824 yards and nine touchdowns this season. The Senior receiver will surely give trouble to Virginia Tech's corners. Other receivers, Ryan Whalen, Chris Owusu, Coby Fleener, Stepfan Taylor, and Griff Whalen each have 200+ yards in receiving, so Luck has other options if the Hokies can cover Baldwin. On the ground, Stanford really only has one go-to guy in Stephan Taylor. Taylor has amassed an 1023 yards in rushing this season. Luck himself holds the next most rushing yardage with 438. Anthony Wilkerson, the Freshman second string running back, has 409 yards on the season.
(Side Note--Here are some horrendous Andrew Luck puns from which I restrained myself from using in this post: "With Luck on their side", "When the Hokie defense blitzes, Luck will run out", "a quarterback standing 6'4" gives them all the Luck they need", "If the quarterback gets injured, they will be out of Luck." Well, I guess I didn't really restrain myself if I just used them, but you had fair warning to skip this part!)
On the Hokie injury front, Linebacker Lyndell Gibson injured his shoulder during the ACC championship game against Florida State. He underwent surgery and will take the next 6-8 months to recover. Redshirt fresham Tariq Edwards will take his place. This will add inexperience to the defensive squad that has spent most of this year maturing, and maturing quite well I might add. However, this could add a weak link to the chain, but I can only roughly speculate.
Overall, I think the biggest determining factors will lie in how well the Hokies defend the secondary. Standford's offense hasn't seen a ground defense quite like that of Bud Foster's, and I think they'll stop the Stanford run for the most part. But Stanford has a very deep and experienced receiver core that will probably have a few tricks up its sleeve for the Virginia Tech corners and safeties. Going the other direction, the only running game Stanford has faced that could measure up to that of Virginia Tech is Oregon, who rushed for 388 yards against the Cardinal. One or more of Ryan Williams, Darren Eveans, and David Wilson will in all likelihood make big gains on the ground. As for the Hokies' passing game, the Cardinal have also not faced anything like Tyrod Taylor combined with the Virginia Tech receiving core, with lots of experience of its own. While the Stanford defense without question will have strategized and drilled on how to contain Taylor, planning to do so makes for one thing while actually executing it with success makes for another. Taylor's passing game is not gong to go quietly in his last game in a Virginia Tech jersey.
And that brings me to my next point. Sadly, this game marks the last of Tyrod Taylor playing for the Hokies. Our program has
had the fortune of having some of the most dynamic and fun to watch quarterbacks. Michael Vick dazzled the college football world, Bryan Randall exceeded all expectations, and now Tyrod Taylor has given us quite a show as well. I remember the first game he took a snap, when he relieved Sean Glennon in the midst of suffering a shellacking against LSU. Through much of the seasons during which he split the spotlight with Glennon, he seemingly had a two-step thought process: (1) look for a pass and (2) when that fails, rush. That thought process has its limits, and while with it he showed athletic ability, it doesn't necessarily make for elite quarterbacking. I roughly place the time at which Taylor made a significant transition around the second quarter of the game against Nebraska of the 2009 season. He began to adopt the thought process of (1a) look for a pass, (1b) scrample to give the receivers time to make an opportunity for a pass, and (2) when those fail, rush. The insertion of step 1b is a big difference maker and has propelled Taylor into the realm of the best quarterback to come through Hokie football, especially considering that he played four years opposed to Vick playing two. And of course its also worth noting the breath of fresh air in a team leader that did not have the off field conduct issues of some of his predecessors. Tyrod Taylor, Hokie football shall miss and always remember you.
The numbers and statistics seem to give Stanford the edge, but I think there's a few other factors that could swing the pendulum in the Hokies' direction. While the Cardinal have made a big stride as a program this season, they have done so at a time when the Pac 10's typical power house, USC, is in the midst of an off season and dealing with the PR fallout from a scandal. USC's play in past seasons has elevated that of the entire conference. So the competition to get to this bowl is probably not as stiff as years past. Also, this will make for Harbaugh's first appearance at a BCS bowl game as a head coach, and it will be opposite BCS bowl veteran Frank Beamer. Stanford has some strong momentum, but the only conference champion they have met handed them a 21 point loss. The Hokies have strong momentum of their own, testament to their ACC dominance after a two-loss season opening. The statistics paint a very good picture for Stanford, but the differentiator doesn't always lie within the numbers. Let's hope that's the case on January 3!
LET'S GO HOKIES!
Showing posts with label BCS. Show all posts
Showing posts with label BCS. Show all posts
Thursday, December 30, 2010
Friday, November 06, 2009
Potentially the Biggest BC "Mess" Ever
We have a lot of season left to play, and I raise this topic too early to justify any serious concern. However, because we can have fun discussing it and it does exist as a possibility, I shall write about this topic anyways.
In current BCS week 9 standings, 7 teams have yet to lose a game. 6 of those teams have the possibility of finishing the season without a loss. If this happens, the college football landscape will call for the BCS heads to roll and roll hard because somebody who deserves it won't get an invitation to the BCS dance. In this post, I run down the list of teams without a loss describing what dangers they have ahead of them, my thoughts about whether they will actually finish the season without a loss, and the value of a zero loss season in a claim to play in the national title. Finally I'll speculate about how the bowl invitations may come down from the BCS should six of these teams actually finish their seasons without a loss.
Florida Gators (1)Florida has a team worthy of their #1 ranking. They have maintained a perfect record in the mighty SEC. Their remaining regular season schedule includes Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Florida International, and Florida State. South Carolina has a team good enough to play the role of a spoiler for a major contender like Florida, but they have the definitive status of underdog in this game. Florida will without question make the SEC championship game, but that game presents them with a significant hurdle. They will face either Alabama (3) or LSU (9) in all likelihood, and this Saturday's contest between those two teams will also in all likelihood determine which reaches the title game as Florida's opponent. The winner of such a matchup makes for a tough prediction for even the most knowledgeable of college football pundits. For the sake of making some kind of prediction, because whomever they face will come to the game more battle hardened, I'll predict Florida drops the championship game in a narrow loss. I think the SEC West has stronger teams than the SEC East, Florida's division.
Texas Longhorns (2)I think Texas really deserved the bid over Oklahoma to playing in the National Championship Game last year. This season, they have come out to play with a vengeance to put an exclamation point on that idea. They have suffered no losses playing out of the tougher of the Big12 divisions. Like Florida, their regular season schedule doesn't present any seriously formidable opponents. Their remaining schedule includes UCF, Baylor, Kansas, and Texas A&M. Texas A&M could create an upset as their arch rivals, and Kansas certainly has the ability to spoil a team's ride to a season without a loss. All unexpected events aside, Texas should cruise to the Big12 title and most likely win it against either Kansas State or Nebraska.
Alabama Rolling Tide (3)You could argue that Alabama has the toughest schedule in totality for the regular season in all of Division I football. It includes 4 ranked teams and of course their regular opponents of the SEC West. Should they win all their games leading up to the SEC championship game, they will in my opinion have earned a #1 ranking. However, they have some higher hurdles to clear in comparison to their zero-loss cohorts of the BCS. Their regular season still has LSU (#9), Mississippi State, Chattanooga, and Auburn. LSU has a #9 ranking, and Auburn has the rivalry factor to motivate them to play like overachievers in the final regular season game. And of course they have to play Florida in the SEC championship to maintain an unbeaten record. I really would like to see Alabama run the table through the regular season and win the SEC championship game. I met a few of their fans at the Hokies' season opener, and despite the loss handed to Virginia Tech, I took a liking to them. However, I think they will probably drop a game prior to the bowl season.
Iowa Hawkeyes (4)I can't remember the last time that Iowa had gotten nine games into their regular season without a loss. I do think that the Big10 lacks strength of schedule when you stack it up against the likes of the SEC and Big12, but a team who can manage not to stumble at all during the regular season deserves kudos. The Big 10 has no conference championship, so they only have their regular season games remaining. They play Northwestern, Ohio State, and Minnesota. A program like Iowa, who doesn't regularly handled the scrutiny of national championship chatter this late in the season, has some susceptibility to an upset to a team like Minnesota or Northwestern, but I don't suspect they will drop those games. Their major hurdle lies in Ohio State, who has had somewhat of a off season thus far. If I had to guess, I'd think Ohio State will plunder their plans for a no loss season, but I mainly base that on the reputation of the two programs.
Cincinnati Bearcats (5)Since coming the Big East, this program has steadily built their prestige amongst the BCS contenders. If you can think back to when the Tampa Bay Lightning made their march to the Stanley Cup in 2004, hockey fans scratched their heads and repeated, "Really? Really? Tamba Bay!?" Cincinati has quickly begun to rise in the college football world in much the same fashion. They have had a tough schedule thus far, probably underrated due to playing out of the Big East, and they have a tough last three games ahead of them. They have yet to play Connecticut, West Virginia, Illinois, and Pittsburgh. West Virginia and Pittsburgh should give them tough games. They should route Illinois. To state which school's have better teams, I'd give that to Cincinnati over all their remaining opponents; however, like Iowa they arrive in the national title hunt as a program without experience in that atmosphere. I think they'll stumble and lose one game before the bowl season.
TCU Horned Frogs (6)TCU plays out of the Mountain Western Conference, one that does not have an automatic bid to a BCS bowl. They can only win an at-large bid to a BCS bowl, and they only have a hope for that if they can win every regular season game, especially with the BCS standings as tight as they are this late in the season. Out of fairness, I think you really have to give a hard look at any team who doesn't lose all season, regardless of from which conference they come. Without doing so you don't have a way for those teams of conferences without an automatic BCS bid to work their way into a BCS bowl. TCU's remaining schedule includes San Diego State, Utah, Wyomic, and New Mexico. I don't know much about any of these teams except for Utah, but I'll just say that TCU will easily handle all of those except for Utah. This game really presents their only obstacle to a season without a loss. Utah, themselves, have only played one loss shy of a perfect season thus far as well. TCU has better numbers than Utah in total offense and total defense. By the stats, they have the upper hand. Also, Utah has a high number of players on injured reserve listed as questionable. Given all this, I think TCU will run the table.
Boise State Broncos (7)Finally, we come to Boise State, also from a non-automatic bid conference. We remember from several seasons ago in what happened as one of the most exciting bowl games in the history of college football: Boise State vs. Oklahoma. The Broncos won that game with an exciting finish. Pundits consistently entertain their program as a potential BCS buster, and rightfully so as they frequently command their conference and earn big non-conference wins. This season, their strength of schedule only has one major opponent: Oregon. But that single opponent has had a marvelous season since that opening loss, and that helps Boise State in the polls. The Broncos have Louisiana Tech, Idaho, Utah State, Nevada, and New Mexico state on their remaining regular season schedule. None of those should give them any major problems. So long as they keep their composure, they'll finish the regular season without a loss.
Now, just for the sake of carrying speculation further, how would things likely shake down if 6 of these 7 teams, the most possible, finished without losing? Should Florida or Alabama claim the SEC title, they will have an uncontestible claim to play in the National Championship Game. Given the strength of the SEC, the BCS committee would probably even go so far as to pick a one-loss SEC team over other zero-loss teams should they win the conference, but I digress. Texas, coming from the formidable Big12 would likely get the invite to play the SEC champion in the National Championship Bowl. Because of the Rose Bowl's old, and quite frankly antiquated, tradition, they would invite Iowa to play Oregon, who will likely win the Pac10. This leaves the Fiesta Bowl, Sugar Bowl, and Orange Bowl, in that order for selection of the 2009 season, across which to spread the rest of the no-loss teams. The Fiesta bowl losing their Big12 champion to the National Championship Bowl would likely pick Cincinnati to play against the one loss team probably from the Big12 they think would bring the most fans or maybe even Notre Dame, even if they finish 6-4...well, because they're Notre Dame. The Sugar Bowl will want the team with the second best record in the SEC: Florida, Alabama, or LSU depending on how things shake down in the SEC. Against that team, they'd probably choose Boise State because of their reputation for traveling decently to bowls. The Orange Bowl will keep with its tradition of inviting the ACC champion to play against TCU, the last remaining team solidifying an at large bid to some BCS bowl. Alternatively, the BCS bowls may only live up to the bare minimum of their rule obligations and only invite one of Boise State and TCU. The rules only obligate the BCS to invite one non-automatic bid conference team. That means the Sugar Bowl would invite some one loss team they deem to bring an attractive number of fans. It also means that only one of Boise State and TCU would get an invite to the Orange Bowl. That's where the fan outrage will come into the picture. A Penn State or one loss LSU would make a much more attract option from a revenue standpoint than a Boise State or TCU, and that means one of those two teams without a single loss get omitted from the BCS.
Saturday, January 10, 2009
Comparing the Automatic BCS Bid Conferences
At the end of the 2007 College Football season as well as at the beginning of the 2008 season, many of the pundits argued the ACC and the Big East scored the lowest in terms of collective conference strength, and they substantiated such arguments with solid facts. The ACC had performed atrociously in each of its BCS bowl appearances since the inception of the BCS. The only victory came at the hands of a Florida State win over Virginia Tech, who played in the Big East at the time and now plays in the ACC.
You can't help but cut the Big East some slack in this department. That conference has recently undergone a weakening by three of its powerhouse teams migrating the ACC: Boston College, Miami, and of course Virginia Tech. Considering the challenges that laid ahead of the Big East at the time of that transition, I think the Big East has made a good showing to at least hang on to their automatic BCS bid status.
The ACC, however, has no such excuse. At the time of the transition, the pundits gobbled up the hype and in some cases even began stacking the ACC next to the mighty SEC. The seasons that passed thereafter lead to quite a disappointment in how the ACC performed out of conference and during the bowl season. At the beginning of this season, I stated in a game preview that Virginia Tech should make its number one goal to win in the post season, wherever the post season took them. And of course by that I also suggested that all ACC teams should have had that goal. I have watched the ACC's out of conference performance this season very closely in the hopes of seeing a path towards the conference truly earning the status of which the pundits initially (and unduly) anointed the ACC at the time of its expansion.
I can't make it through a single posting on TSF without citing statistics, and I make no exception for this posting. I've compiled a set of standings in terms of wins and losses between each of the automatic bid conferences. I'm not trying to exclude non-automatic bid conferences for any reason other than this involved a lot of busy work. I don't have the fancy dancy searchable databases at the fingertips of professional commentators. I just compiled data for the automatic bid conferences because it seems a decent, although not perfect, way to compare these conferences. I did some of this by hand, so I apologize up front if there's a couple of errors. But for the most part, they have good data.
Let's first examine the overall record of the conferences. These standings include regular season and bowl season inter-conference play. To no real surprise, the SEC comes out on top, and the Big 12 comes in a close second. One surprise lies in who comes in third and fourth and by how many percentage points. This stat shows the Pac 10 to have a very good showing, only trailing the Big 12 by two percentage points. I think we can safely say that Pac 10 fans have been right call foul and claim themselves as an underrated conference this season. The ACC doesn't look too bad either, but this season's performance definitely leave some room for improvement. The Big East still has some headway to make to reestablishing themselves amongst the other automatic-bid'ers, and the Big Ten is hanging down in the basement. These standings give us a good birds eye view about how the conferences have performed with respect to each other, but let's take a further look at this in some different contexts.
Here, we have the conference standings for games only played in the regular season, and this should make ACC fans proud. The ACC leads this category by 8 percentage points over the mighty SEC! I did expect that the ACC would perform better in this category than the previous, but I didn't think they'd come in first, and much less by 8 points. The SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, and Big East all tie for the second, and the Pac 10 trails by a whopping 16 percentage points in last place. Maybe I need to retract that statement above about the Pac 10 fans saying their conference is underrated.
These standings only include bowl season contests. Continuing the Pac 10's schizophrenic storyline, they blow everybody else out of the water by running the table in all their bowl season games. That's impressive. So my conclusion about the Pac 10 is they deserve the award for most streaky conference amongst the automatic bid'ers. The SEC of course still holds it's own, along with the Big 12, but the percentages drop drastically after that. The Big East, ACC, and Big Ten performed quite poorly in the bowl season. The ACC has had this as an Achilles heel since the inception of the BCS. Virginia Tech did its part this year, so we Hokie fans have good reason to be proud. Hopefully, we'll get another bowl victory next year, but against a more reputable conference like the SEC or the Big 12. But what happened to Miami? I think their game against Cal may have made for the worst display of clock management, in both halves, that I have every witnessed in my entire football (college or pro) watching life! Then, Boston College drops one to Vanderbilt? I know Vanderbuild hails from the SEC, but come on, they aren't LSU or Auburn. Georgia Tech definitely had their hands full against LSU, but they should have at least made it into the end zone. Clemson put up a good fight against Nebraska, but couldn't pull out the W. But let's hand it to Florida State for punishing Wisconsin for bailing on the Hokies' inter-conference matchup. Then again, the game that replaced it, versus Nebraska, went pretty well. Getting back to the standings, the ACC played the inverse role of the Pac 10 this season: great in the regular season and poor in the bowl season. If the ACC wants to earn more recognition, it needs to improve its bowl season play considerably. Performing will in the regular season definitely has its value, but the bowl season has the most visibility and the most emphasized chatter between the pundits.
So I decided to list the standings of the automatic bid'ers again, but this time with a twist. I removed all the games that ended in a score differential of one possession. Think about this. Those games really could have gone either way, and the clock played a significant role in who earned the W. So in this category, the ACC just barely squeaks by the SEC with the highest win percentage. This shows that the ACC, despite some key losses, may have the poise to come out on top of all the other conferences if it makes a few adjustments and pulls out wins in those close games that go down to the final possession. I don't mean to undermine the value of a team that demonstrates time after time that it can win the close games. That is very important, and let's face, it makes for the most exiting type of football. All this stated, the ACC just may have a break out season in 2009 or 2010.
In conclusion, I think the ACC did make a positive step towards strengthening the conference name. A strong regular season of inter-conference play definitely has boosted the perception of strength of the ACC. The poor bowl season performance will most likely overshadow the strong regular season, however, but there is a positive side to that. If you know your conference has strengthened, but you opponents don't quite recognize it, they may not see you coming, and that may be worth a major upset or two in '09 in favor of the ACC.
Lastly, this table includes all the games I used in these standings for your reference. And as always, LET'S GO HOKIES!
You can't help but cut the Big East some slack in this department. That conference has recently undergone a weakening by three of its powerhouse teams migrating the ACC: Boston College, Miami, and of course Virginia Tech. Considering the challenges that laid ahead of the Big East at the time of that transition, I think the Big East has made a good showing to at least hang on to their automatic BCS bid status.
The ACC, however, has no such excuse. At the time of the transition, the pundits gobbled up the hype and in some cases even began stacking the ACC next to the mighty SEC. The seasons that passed thereafter lead to quite a disappointment in how the ACC performed out of conference and during the bowl season. At the beginning of this season, I stated in a game preview that Virginia Tech should make its number one goal to win in the post season, wherever the post season took them. And of course by that I also suggested that all ACC teams should have had that goal. I have watched the ACC's out of conference performance this season very closely in the hopes of seeing a path towards the conference truly earning the status of which the pundits initially (and unduly) anointed the ACC at the time of its expansion.
I can't make it through a single posting on TSF without citing statistics, and I make no exception for this posting. I've compiled a set of standings in terms of wins and losses between each of the automatic bid conferences. I'm not trying to exclude non-automatic bid conferences for any reason other than this involved a lot of busy work. I don't have the fancy dancy searchable databases at the fingertips of professional commentators. I just compiled data for the automatic bid conferences because it seems a decent, although not perfect, way to compare these conferences. I did some of this by hand, so I apologize up front if there's a couple of errors. But for the most part, they have good data.
Overall Automatic Bid Conference Standings
Conference GP Total W Total L Total W %
SEC 19 11 8 58%
Big 12 22 12 10 55%
Pac 10 15 8 7 53%
ACC 26 13 13 50%
Big East 17 8 9 47%
Big Ten 16 6 10 38%
Let's first examine the overall record of the conferences. These standings include regular season and bowl season inter-conference play. To no real surprise, the SEC comes out on top, and the Big 12 comes in a close second. One surprise lies in who comes in third and fourth and by how many percentage points. This stat shows the Pac 10 to have a very good showing, only trailing the Big 12 by two percentage points. I think we can safely say that Pac 10 fans have been right call foul and claim themselves as an underrated conference this season. The ACC doesn't look too bad either, but this season's performance definitely leave some room for improvement. The Big East still has some headway to make to reestablishing themselves amongst the other automatic-bid'ers, and the Big Ten is hanging down in the basement. These standings give us a good birds eye view about how the conferences have performed with respect to each other, but let's take a further look at this in some different contexts.
Automatic Bid Conference Standings Regular Season Only
Conference GP Reg Season W Reg Season L Reg Season W %
ACC 19 11 8 58%
SEC 14 7 7 50%
Big Ten 10 5 5 50%
Big 12 16 8 8 50%
Big East 14 7 7 50%
Pac 10 11 4 7 36%
Here, we have the conference standings for games only played in the regular season, and this should make ACC fans proud. The ACC leads this category by 8 percentage points over the mighty SEC! I did expect that the ACC would perform better in this category than the previous, but I didn't think they'd come in first, and much less by 8 points. The SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, and Big East all tie for the second, and the Pac 10 trails by a whopping 16 percentage points in last place. Maybe I need to retract that statement above about the Pac 10 fans saying their conference is underrated.
Overall Automatic Bid Conference Standings Bowl Season Only
Conf GP Bowl Season W Bowl Season L Bowl Season W %
Pac 10 4 4 0 100%
SEC 5 4 1 80%
Big 12 4 3 1 75%
Big East 3 1 2 33%
ACC 7 2 5 29%
Big Ten 8 2 6 25%
These standings only include bowl season contests. Continuing the Pac 10's schizophrenic storyline, they blow everybody else out of the water by running the table in all their bowl season games. That's impressive. So my conclusion about the Pac 10 is they deserve the award for most streaky conference amongst the automatic bid'ers. The SEC of course still holds it's own, along with the Big 12, but the percentages drop drastically after that. The Big East, ACC, and Big Ten performed quite poorly in the bowl season. The ACC has had this as an Achilles heel since the inception of the BCS. Virginia Tech did its part this year, so we Hokie fans have good reason to be proud. Hopefully, we'll get another bowl victory next year, but against a more reputable conference like the SEC or the Big 12. But what happened to Miami? I think their game against Cal may have made for the worst display of clock management, in both halves, that I have every witnessed in my entire football (college or pro) watching life! Then, Boston College drops one to Vanderbilt? I know Vanderbuild hails from the SEC, but come on, they aren't LSU or Auburn. Georgia Tech definitely had their hands full against LSU, but they should have at least made it into the end zone. Clemson put up a good fight against Nebraska, but couldn't pull out the W. But let's hand it to Florida State for punishing Wisconsin for bailing on the Hokies' inter-conference matchup. Then again, the game that replaced it, versus Nebraska, went pretty well. Getting back to the standings, the ACC played the inverse role of the Pac 10 this season: great in the regular season and poor in the bowl season. If the ACC wants to earn more recognition, it needs to improve its bowl season play considerably. Performing will in the regular season definitely has its value, but the bowl season has the most visibility and the most emphasized chatter between the pundits.
Automatic Bid Conference Standings Overall
excluding points differential of a single possession
Conference GP Total W Total L Total W %
ACC 18 11 7 61%
SEC 15 9 6 60%
Big Ten 10 5 5 50%
Big 12 17 8 9 47%
Pac 10 10 4 6 40%
Big East 10 3 7 30%
So I decided to list the standings of the automatic bid'ers again, but this time with a twist. I removed all the games that ended in a score differential of one possession. Think about this. Those games really could have gone either way, and the clock played a significant role in who earned the W. So in this category, the ACC just barely squeaks by the SEC with the highest win percentage. This shows that the ACC, despite some key losses, may have the poise to come out on top of all the other conferences if it makes a few adjustments and pulls out wins in those close games that go down to the final possession. I don't mean to undermine the value of a team that demonstrates time after time that it can win the close games. That is very important, and let's face, it makes for the most exiting type of football. All this stated, the ACC just may have a break out season in 2009 or 2010.
Automatic Bid Conference Standings Regular Season Only
excluding points differential of a single possession
Conf GP Reg Season W Reg Season L Reg Season W %
Big Ten 4 4 0 100%
ACC 10 8 2 80%
SEC 10 5 5 50%
Big 12 9 4 5 44%
Pac 10 11 4 5 36%
Big East 9 2 7 22%
Automatic Bid Conference Standings Bowl Season Only
excluding points differential of a single possession
Conf GP Bowl Season W Bowl Season L Bowl Season W %
Big East 1 1 0 100%
Pac 10 1 1 0 100%
SEC 4 3 1 75%
Big Ten 6 2 4 33%
ACC 3 1 2 33%
Big 12 1 0 1 0%
In conclusion, I think the ACC did make a positive step towards strengthening the conference name. A strong regular season of inter-conference play definitely has boosted the perception of strength of the ACC. The poor bowl season performance will most likely overshadow the strong regular season, however, but there is a positive side to that. If you know your conference has strengthened, but you opponents don't quite recognize it, they may not see you coming, and that may be worth a major upset or two in '09 in favor of the ACC.
Lastly, this table includes all the games I used in these standings for your reference. And as always, LET'S GO HOKIES!
| Match | Winner | Loser | Season | W Points | L Points | Differential |
| Iowa vs. Pittsburgh | Big East | Big Ten | Regular | 21 | 20 | 1 |
| West Virginia vs. North Carolina | Big East | ACC | Bowl | 31 | 30 | 1 |
| Mississippi vs. Wake Forest | ACC | Big 12 | Regular | 30 | 28 | 2 |
| Vanderbilt vs. Boston College | SEC | ACC | Bowl | 16 | 14 | 2 |
| Tennessee vs. UCLA | SEC | Pac 10 | Regular | 27 | 24 | 3 |
| Kansas vs. South Florida | Big East | SEC | Regular | 37 | 34 | 3 |
| Vanderbilt vs. Duke | ACC | SEC | Regular | 10 | 7 | 3 |
| Baylor vs. Connecticut | Big East | Big 12 | Regular | 31 | 28 | 3 |
| Pittsburgh vs. Oregon State | Pac 10 | Big East | Bowl | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Ohio State vs. Texas | Big 12 | Big Ten | Bowl | 24 | 21 | 3 |
| West Virginia vs. Colorado | Big 12 | Big East | Regular | 17 | 14 | 3 |
| Rutgers vs. NC State | Big East | ACC | Regular | 33 | 29 | 4 |
| Northwestern vs. Duke | Big Ten | ACC | Regular | 24 | 20 | 4 |
| Nebraska vs. Clemson | Big 12 | ACC | Bowl | 26 | 21 | 5 |
| Virginia Tech vs. Nebraska | ACC | Big 12 | Regular | 35 | 30 | 5 |
| Oregon vs. Purdue | Pac 10 | Big Ten | Regular | 32 | 26 | 6 |
| Miami vs. California | Pac 10 | ACC | Bowl | 24 | 17 | 7 |
| Michigan State vs. California | Pac 10 | Big Ten | Regular | 38 | 31 | 7 |
| Northwestern vs. Missouri | Big 12 | Big Ten | Bowl | 30 | 23 | 7 |
| California vs. Maryland | ACC | Pac 10 | Regular | 35 | 27 | 8 |
| Kansas State vs. Louisville | Big East | Big 12 | Regular | 38 | 29 | 9 |
| Oklahoma vs. Florida | SEC | Big 12 | Bowl | 24 | 14 | 10 |
| Illinois vs. Missouri | Big 12 | Big Ten | Regular | 52 | 42 | 10 |
| Oregon vs. Oklahoma State | Pac 10 | Big 12 | Bowl | 42 | 31 | 11 |
| Iowa State vs. Iowa | Big Ten | Big 12 | Regular | 17 | 5 | 12 |
| Michigan State vs. Georgia | SEC | Big Ten | Bowl | 24 | 12 | 12 |
| Vanderbilt vs. Wake Forest | ACC | SEC | Regular | 23 | 10 | 13 |
| Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati | ACC | Big East | Bowl | 20 | 7 | 13 |
| Penn State vs. USC | Pac 10 | Big Ten | Bowl | 38 | 24 | 14 |
| Kansas vs. Oklahoma | Big 12 | SEC | Regular | 45 | 31 | 14 |
| Georgia vs. Arizona State | SEC | Pac 10 | Regular | 27 | 10 | 17 |
| South Carolina vs. Clemson | ACC | SEC | Regular | 31 | 14 | 17 |
| Auburn vs. West Virginia | Big East | SEC | Regular | 34 | 17 | 17 |
| Miami vs. Texas A&M | ACC | Big 12 | Regular | 41 | 23 | 18 |
| Colorado vs. Florida State | ACC | Big 12 | Regular | 39 | 21 | 18 |
| Syracuse vs. Northwestern | Big Ten | Big East | Regular | 30 | 10 | 20 |
| Iowa vs. South Carolina | Big Ten | SEC | Bowl | 31 | 10 | 21 |
| Minnesota vs. Kansas | Big 12 | Big Ten | Bowl | 42 | 21 | 21 |
| Miami vs. Florida | SEC | ACC | Regular | 26 | 3 | 23 |
| Alabama vs. Clemson | SEC | ACC | Regular | 34 | 10 | 24 |
| Kentucky vs. Louisville | SEC | Big East | Regular | 27 | 2 | 25 |
| Connecticut vs. North Carolina | ACC | Big East | Regular | 38 | 12 | 26 |
| Cincinnati vs. Oklahoma | Big 12 | Big East | Regular | 52 | 26 | 26 |
| Oklahoma State vs. Washington State | Big 12 | Pac 10 | Regular | 39 | 13 | 26 |
| Washington State vs. Baylor | Big 12 | Pac 10 | Regular | 45 | 17 | 28 |
| Wisconsin vs. Florida State | ACC | Big Ten | Bowl | 42 | 13 | 29 |
| Florida vs. Florida State | SEC | ACC | Regular | 45 | 15 | 30 |
| Oregon State vs. Penn State | Big Ten | Pac 10 | Regular | 45 | 14 | 31 |
| Mississippi State vs. Georgia Tech | ACC | Big 12 | Regular | 38 | 7 | 31 |
| North Carolina vs. Rutgers | ACC | Big East | Regular | 44 | 12 | 32 |
| Ohio State vs. USC | Pac 10 | Big Ten | Regular | 35 | 3 | 32 |
| South Carolina vs. NC State | SEC | ACC | Regular | 34 | 0 | 34 |
| Georgia Tech vs. LSU | SEC | ACC | Bowl | 38 | 3 | 35 |
| Virginia vs. Connecticut | Big East | ACC | Regular | 45 | 10 | 35 |
| Oklahoma vs. Washington | Big 12 | Pac 10 | Regular | 55 | 14 | 41 |
| Arkansas vs. Texas | Big 12 | SEC | Regular | 52 | 10 | 42 |
| Penn State vs. Syracuse | Big Ten | Big East | Regular | 55 | 13 | 42 |
| Virginia vs. USC | Pac 10 | ACC | Regular | 52 | 7 | 45 |
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Bowl Season for the ACC
If you're a College Football sports news reader (and I'm just going to assume that you probably are if you're web browser has landed on this page), you've almost certainly read about the criticism that the ACC ranks towards the bottom of six conferences who have an automatic bid for a BCS bowl. The yardstick for making this determination comes from the results of inter-conference play. The 2008 season is about to embark on the stretch between December 20 and January 6 when inter-conference play happens nearly every day of the week. This is the time that avid College Football fans watch multiple games and pick who they want to win largely based on which teams play in their favorite team's conference...unless it's UVA...who's bowl ineligible this season. And this season more so than others should bring about some anxiety for the quintessential ACC fan. In this post, I'm going to touch on bowls in which the ACC competes this year, and hopefully, lay out a path towards the ACC gaining some respect that it lost since all the hype generated from the expansion that brought Virginia Tech into the conference. I may, just maybe...okay DEFINITELY, take some jabs at the BCS for the selections it made this year.
BCS (Fraudulent) Title Game: Jan 8, 8pm, FOX
Okay, this doesn't pit any ACC teams, but I can't resist. Texas not playing in this game is just a plain crime. Texas suffered its single loss at an away game in the final seconds. Oklahoma dropped its single loss at a neutral site. By any fair measure, Texas should have played in the Big 12 title game, which would have almost certainly landed them in the BCS Title Game. Because of this, we'll have no true national champion once again. Thanks a lot, BCS!
Orange Bowl: Jan 1, 8:30 p.m., FOX
Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati
First, I can't say I'm jumping for joy that Virginia Tech is playing against Cincinnati. Don't get me wrong, the Bearcats have definitely earned and deserve their bid; I just don't think the ACC has much to gain in a victory over the Big East. The Big East has been in fierce competition with the ACC for the title of worst of the automatic BCS bid conferences. I think the Orange Bowl committee (and I know this would require bending those stingy BCS rules) should have chosen Texas Tech. First, I think Texas Tech as a one loss team in the Big 12 South has earned a BCS bowl bid. Second, I actually think the Hokies would have a reasonable shot at a victory. All things considered, the Red Raiders have a better team than the Hokies, but in a contest between the two, I think the Hokies actually match up pretty well. Virginia Tech defensive coordinator (at least for now) Bud Foster's squad would give the Red Raider offensive line the biggest challenge they've had since facing the Sooners. Macho Harris just may be able to do his part to contain wide receiver Michael Crabtree. At any rate, it's not to be. Nonetheless, a victory against Cincinnati in a BCS bowl would well serve the ACC.
Gator Bowl: Jan 1, 1 p.m., CBS
Clemson vs. Nebraska
A Clemson victory over Nebraska would make for a second ACC victory over this reputable Big 12 team. Go Tigers!
Chick-Fil-A Bowl: Dec 31, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Georgia Tech vs. LSU
LSU hails from the mighty Southeastern Conference. A Ramblin' Wreck win over the Tigers would definitely prop up some respect for the ACC. This is an uphill battle, but Georgia Tech has pulled some upsets before. Go Yellow Jackets!
Music City: Dec 31, 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Boston College vs. Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt, like LSU, also hails from the SEC, but they aren't quite so mighty. Boston College should give them a good licking if they are at the top of their game. Go Eagles!
Humanitarian Bowl: Dec 30, 4:30 p.m., ESPN
Maryland vs. Nevada
What a sissy name for a bowl! Do the players run to the fifty yard line, hold hands, and sing kumbaya? Okay, as much as Maryland may be tempted to throw this one to avoid having their names etched in history as victors of the Kumbaya Bowl, they've played strongly this year against some tough competition, and I expect Freidgen's gang to play to the top of their game. Go Terrapins!
Papajohns.com Bowl: Dec 29, 3 p.m., ESPN
Rutgers vs. NC State
As much as I roll my eyes at the thought of relying on a school from the state of North Carolina to prop up the ACC (If you're a native Virginian, you know exactly what I mean.), wins over the Big East will at least guarantee the ACC a second-to-last ranking of the automatic bid BCS conferences. Go Wolfpack!
Emerald Bowl: Dec 27, 8 p.m., ESPN
Miami vs. California
This one's an uphill battle for Miami, but I still like their odds. Miami has a lot of young and growing talent. I expect them to climb back to the top of the ACC in the next two to three years. A win here would definitely boost the morale of the Miami locker room next season. Go 'Cains!
Champs Sports Bowl: Dec 27, 4:30 p.m., ESPN
Florida State vs. Wisconsin
I hope FSU gives the Badgers the spanking they deserve for backing out of the inter-conference play they had scheduled against the Hokies. FSU has improved over the last couple of season, and hopefully, they continue that trend in the bowl season. (This is going to really hurt, but here goes.) Go 'Noles. (But I'm NOT doing that stupid tomahawk chop.)
Meineke Car Care Bowl: Dec 27, 1 p.m., ESPN
North Carolina vs. West Virginia
Sorry folks. I have dear relatives in this state (no family tree jokes!), and with the hardships upon which the steel and coal industry have come make this an exception. The state could use something to uplift their spirits. So I'm saying Go Mountaineers. All other ACC fans, however, should say Go 'Heels.
Hawaii Bowl
Notre Dame vs. Hawaii
The ACC doesn't have a part in this, but after years of watching Notre Game get bowls they don't deserve, Go Warriors!
Eaglebank Bowl: Ded 20, 11 a.m., ESPN
Navy vs. Wake Forest
Go Demon Deacons!
After the 2008 bowl season concludes as a follow-up to this post, yours truly will compile a list of wins and losses for each conference in inter-conference play for the 208 season. From that and a couple other considerations, I'll present you with a ranking of the automatic bid conferences. One of the great things about College Football is how fast the landscape can change in just a few short seasons. This isn't the NFL where the Detroit Lions have thrown away all their draft picks since the Transformers cartoon show went off the air. (So maybe that's an exaggeration, but not too great of one.) The ACC has stunk in the last few seasons, but it has a lot of youth and a lot of potential. Let's see what it can deliver.
And now that I've been saying, "Go [insert ACC team here]," I have to close by reaffirming where my heart is when it comes to College Footall...
LET'S GO HOKIES!!!
BCS (Fraudulent) Title Game: Jan 8, 8pm, FOX
Okay, this doesn't pit any ACC teams, but I can't resist. Texas not playing in this game is just a plain crime. Texas suffered its single loss at an away game in the final seconds. Oklahoma dropped its single loss at a neutral site. By any fair measure, Texas should have played in the Big 12 title game, which would have almost certainly landed them in the BCS Title Game. Because of this, we'll have no true national champion once again. Thanks a lot, BCS!
Orange Bowl: Jan 1, 8:30 p.m., FOX
Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati
First, I can't say I'm jumping for joy that Virginia Tech is playing against Cincinnati. Don't get me wrong, the Bearcats have definitely earned and deserve their bid; I just don't think the ACC has much to gain in a victory over the Big East. The Big East has been in fierce competition with the ACC for the title of worst of the automatic BCS bid conferences. I think the Orange Bowl committee (and I know this would require bending those stingy BCS rules) should have chosen Texas Tech. First, I think Texas Tech as a one loss team in the Big 12 South has earned a BCS bowl bid. Second, I actually think the Hokies would have a reasonable shot at a victory. All things considered, the Red Raiders have a better team than the Hokies, but in a contest between the two, I think the Hokies actually match up pretty well. Virginia Tech defensive coordinator (at least for now) Bud Foster's squad would give the Red Raider offensive line the biggest challenge they've had since facing the Sooners. Macho Harris just may be able to do his part to contain wide receiver Michael Crabtree. At any rate, it's not to be. Nonetheless, a victory against Cincinnati in a BCS bowl would well serve the ACC.
Gator Bowl: Jan 1, 1 p.m., CBS
Clemson vs. Nebraska
A Clemson victory over Nebraska would make for a second ACC victory over this reputable Big 12 team. Go Tigers!
Chick-Fil-A Bowl: Dec 31, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Georgia Tech vs. LSU
LSU hails from the mighty Southeastern Conference. A Ramblin' Wreck win over the Tigers would definitely prop up some respect for the ACC. This is an uphill battle, but Georgia Tech has pulled some upsets before. Go Yellow Jackets!
Music City: Dec 31, 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Boston College vs. Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt, like LSU, also hails from the SEC, but they aren't quite so mighty. Boston College should give them a good licking if they are at the top of their game. Go Eagles!
Humanitarian Bowl: Dec 30, 4:30 p.m., ESPN
Maryland vs. Nevada
What a sissy name for a bowl! Do the players run to the fifty yard line, hold hands, and sing kumbaya? Okay, as much as Maryland may be tempted to throw this one to avoid having their names etched in history as victors of the Kumbaya Bowl, they've played strongly this year against some tough competition, and I expect Freidgen's gang to play to the top of their game. Go Terrapins!
Papajohns.com Bowl: Dec 29, 3 p.m., ESPN
Rutgers vs. NC State
As much as I roll my eyes at the thought of relying on a school from the state of North Carolina to prop up the ACC (If you're a native Virginian, you know exactly what I mean.), wins over the Big East will at least guarantee the ACC a second-to-last ranking of the automatic bid BCS conferences. Go Wolfpack!
Emerald Bowl: Dec 27, 8 p.m., ESPN
Miami vs. California
This one's an uphill battle for Miami, but I still like their odds. Miami has a lot of young and growing talent. I expect them to climb back to the top of the ACC in the next two to three years. A win here would definitely boost the morale of the Miami locker room next season. Go 'Cains!
Champs Sports Bowl: Dec 27, 4:30 p.m., ESPN
Florida State vs. Wisconsin
I hope FSU gives the Badgers the spanking they deserve for backing out of the inter-conference play they had scheduled against the Hokies. FSU has improved over the last couple of season, and hopefully, they continue that trend in the bowl season. (This is going to really hurt, but here goes.) Go 'Noles. (But I'm NOT doing that stupid tomahawk chop.)
Meineke Car Care Bowl: Dec 27, 1 p.m., ESPN
North Carolina vs. West Virginia
Sorry folks. I have dear relatives in this state (no family tree jokes!), and with the hardships upon which the steel and coal industry have come make this an exception. The state could use something to uplift their spirits. So I'm saying Go Mountaineers. All other ACC fans, however, should say Go 'Heels.
Hawaii Bowl
Notre Dame vs. Hawaii
The ACC doesn't have a part in this, but after years of watching Notre Game get bowls they don't deserve, Go Warriors!
Eaglebank Bowl: Ded 20, 11 a.m., ESPN
Navy vs. Wake Forest
Go Demon Deacons!
After the 2008 bowl season concludes as a follow-up to this post, yours truly will compile a list of wins and losses for each conference in inter-conference play for the 208 season. From that and a couple other considerations, I'll present you with a ranking of the automatic bid conferences. One of the great things about College Football is how fast the landscape can change in just a few short seasons. This isn't the NFL where the Detroit Lions have thrown away all their draft picks since the Transformers cartoon show went off the air. (So maybe that's an exaggeration, but not too great of one.) The ACC has stunk in the last few seasons, but it has a lot of youth and a lot of potential. Let's see what it can deliver.
And now that I've been saying, "Go [insert ACC team here]," I have to close by reaffirming where my heart is when it comes to College Footall...
LET'S GO HOKIES!!!
Thursday, November 20, 2008
The Bully Pulpit - Can it deliver BCS playoffs?
Halftime of Monday Night Football on Election Day Eve, 2008:
Chris Berman: "If there was one thing you could change in sports, what would it be?"
Barak Obama: "I think it's about time we had playoffs in College Football"
Yes, that's right, love him or hate him, Barak Obama threw fuel on the fire of the long running debate in College Football about whether the BCS should move to a playoff system. I'm going to go out on a limb here and stipulate that a majority of our TSF readers would like to see some sort of playoff system in place of what the BCS has now. Maybe some think it should have two rounds, maybe others say three, dare I say some think four? Whatever the case, the seemingly routine debate that surfaces every season has an extra dimension this year. The President Elect of the country has made it known that he wants to see a playoff system.
So will the Obama endorsement provide the extra umph needed to eventually make this happen, or will the BCS committee quash it as it routinely has in the past? On Monday of this week, Obama did an interview on 60 Minutes where he stated that he will use his influence ("throw my weight around") as President to push for an eight team playoff. He said, "If you've got a bunch of teams who play throughout the season and many of them have one loss or two losses, there's no clear, decisive winner." If Obama really wants to turn the heat p on the NCAA, there are several measures he could take to escalate his influence. He could attempt to impose an executive order on the NCAA. He could also use the Department of Justice to investigate whether the BCS violates ani-trust law. Ultimately, however, the NCAA as a private enterprise would rightfully win those battles, but it would do so at a potential price. That price could consist of public opinion growing and developing stronger feelings about the matter, maybe to the extent where the BCS committee would have no choice but to do something. But Obama has his most potent weapon in influencing the BCS in something far more simplistic: the Bully Pulpit. He currently has a great deal of popularity, and he can use his voice to motivate the masses of College Football fans to put pressure on the committee. He also has a class warfare style argument he can make to get public opinion to rally behind his cause. ESPN has recently outbid Fox for coverage of the all the major bowls. That means eventually those games will only appear on pay-for cable rather than on freely available broadcast. This no doubt upsets many consumers who don't think viewers should have to foot the bill for cable just to watch major sporting events. Overall, Obama has a few avenues he can travel to twist some BCS arms.
Now, let's move on to the other side of the issue. The BCS officials have congratulated Obama on his victory and followed that directly up with an assertion that College Football has the most compelling regular season in sports and that the BCS system does produce a national champion. Agree with it or not, the committee's has made that statement. Who makes up the BCS committee, anyways? It consists of commissioners of each of the major conferences and and organizers of the Fiesta Bowl, Sugar Bowl, Rose Bowl, and Orange Bowl. And of course the commission has the primary responsibility of turning the best profit possible for the BCS. Strange as it may seem, the NCAA doesn't control the BCS. Obama's informal proposal suggests shortening the regular season, something against which the NCAA would protest because that means less revenue for the schools that don't qualify for the eight team playoff than those teams would get under the current system.
Several seasons ago, back when TSF only existed as a newsletter sent over email to a listserve, Mad Jay and I both laid out each of our separate ideas for how to fix the BCS. (Maybe I'll dig that up from the old TSF archives and post that article as a supplement just for old time's sake.) In my humble opinion, both of us proposed good solutions that fans would like and from which the BCS would benefit financially. Those aside, I think the current system isn't tooooooo bad, and that the BCS could fix it with one minor change: put the top four teams into a two round playoff.
As an avid follower of politics and College Football, this debate will make an interesting saga for me to watch over the course of the next few seasons. Realistically, the only way I see this happening is consumers threatening the bottom line of the BCS. That means fans get so angry about the system that they begin to look elsewhere to invest their time, attention, and energy into other sorts, which hits the BCS where it hurts, their wallets. If the BCS get's the feeling that will happen, we'll assuredly see a College Football playoff system.
Chris Berman: "If there was one thing you could change in sports, what would it be?"
Barak Obama: "I think it's about time we had playoffs in College Football"
Yes, that's right, love him or hate him, Barak Obama threw fuel on the fire of the long running debate in College Football about whether the BCS should move to a playoff system. I'm going to go out on a limb here and stipulate that a majority of our TSF readers would like to see some sort of playoff system in place of what the BCS has now. Maybe some think it should have two rounds, maybe others say three, dare I say some think four? Whatever the case, the seemingly routine debate that surfaces every season has an extra dimension this year. The President Elect of the country has made it known that he wants to see a playoff system.
So will the Obama endorsement provide the extra umph needed to eventually make this happen, or will the BCS committee quash it as it routinely has in the past? On Monday of this week, Obama did an interview on 60 Minutes where he stated that he will use his influence ("throw my weight around") as President to push for an eight team playoff. He said, "If you've got a bunch of teams who play throughout the season and many of them have one loss or two losses, there's no clear, decisive winner." If Obama really wants to turn the heat p on the NCAA, there are several measures he could take to escalate his influence. He could attempt to impose an executive order on the NCAA. He could also use the Department of Justice to investigate whether the BCS violates ani-trust law. Ultimately, however, the NCAA as a private enterprise would rightfully win those battles, but it would do so at a potential price. That price could consist of public opinion growing and developing stronger feelings about the matter, maybe to the extent where the BCS committee would have no choice but to do something. But Obama has his most potent weapon in influencing the BCS in something far more simplistic: the Bully Pulpit. He currently has a great deal of popularity, and he can use his voice to motivate the masses of College Football fans to put pressure on the committee. He also has a class warfare style argument he can make to get public opinion to rally behind his cause. ESPN has recently outbid Fox for coverage of the all the major bowls. That means eventually those games will only appear on pay-for cable rather than on freely available broadcast. This no doubt upsets many consumers who don't think viewers should have to foot the bill for cable just to watch major sporting events. Overall, Obama has a few avenues he can travel to twist some BCS arms.
Now, let's move on to the other side of the issue. The BCS officials have congratulated Obama on his victory and followed that directly up with an assertion that College Football has the most compelling regular season in sports and that the BCS system does produce a national champion. Agree with it or not, the committee's has made that statement. Who makes up the BCS committee, anyways? It consists of commissioners of each of the major conferences and and organizers of the Fiesta Bowl, Sugar Bowl, Rose Bowl, and Orange Bowl. And of course the commission has the primary responsibility of turning the best profit possible for the BCS. Strange as it may seem, the NCAA doesn't control the BCS. Obama's informal proposal suggests shortening the regular season, something against which the NCAA would protest because that means less revenue for the schools that don't qualify for the eight team playoff than those teams would get under the current system.
Several seasons ago, back when TSF only existed as a newsletter sent over email to a listserve, Mad Jay and I both laid out each of our separate ideas for how to fix the BCS. (Maybe I'll dig that up from the old TSF archives and post that article as a supplement just for old time's sake.) In my humble opinion, both of us proposed good solutions that fans would like and from which the BCS would benefit financially. Those aside, I think the current system isn't tooooooo bad, and that the BCS could fix it with one minor change: put the top four teams into a two round playoff.
As an avid follower of politics and College Football, this debate will make an interesting saga for me to watch over the course of the next few seasons. Realistically, the only way I see this happening is consumers threatening the bottom line of the BCS. That means fans get so angry about the system that they begin to look elsewhere to invest their time, attention, and energy into other sorts, which hits the BCS where it hurts, their wallets. If the BCS get's the feeling that will happen, we'll assuredly see a College Football playoff system.
Monday, December 03, 2007
Why Virginia Tech Deserves to Play in the National Championship
Ohio State is a one-loss team conference champ, and the lone team who can fit into that category, so of course they deserve the number one ranking and a berth in the national championship. However, LSU isn't standing on such firm ground. Yes, LSU has two losses resulting from multiple overtimes. Yes, LSU blew Virginia Tech out in their meeting this season. Yes, LSU plays in the toughest conference in College Football. But make no mistake my fellow BCS (err BC-MESS) critics, by the numbers LSU received their berth in the national championship by popularity, not by what they earned.
First and foremost, they have two losses, not overtime losses. The NHL distinguishes between the two, but the NCAA does not. Therefore, they have two losses. Those two losses came at the hands of teams who do not have a Top 25 ranking at the closing of the pre-bowl season. Virginia Tech stands out as the only conference champion to have two losses to teams currently ranking in the BCS Top 25.
Secondly, the thought of a head-to-head tie breaker doesn't hold water. The schedules of these two teams are very different given that they play in different conferences. For teams playing in the same division of the same conference, such a tie breaker makes sense because there is a level playing field. (Pardon the pun, unintended.) This is not the case between Virginia Tech and LSU.
Thirdly, favoritism towards SEC teams is discriminatorally unfair. LSU plays in the SEC by their own choice. If they wanted to play in another conference, they very well could. Weighing one conference above all others in terms of bowl selection promotes bias that can lead to assumptions that skew perception of how good teams really are. The most fair way to judge a team is on what they've earned on paper, not public opinion. And Virginia Tech has earned more than LSU. The BSC system has only, in this respect, screwed Hawaii more so than it has Virginia Tech this year.
Fourth, LSU has had to overcome injuries in their games this year. So has Virginia Tech, probably more so that LSU. I can list Ed Wang, Vince Hall, Tyrod Taylor, Sean Glennon (although only briefly), and Eddie Royal just off the top of my head. You could even consider Branden Ore playing a number of games not at 100% with his ankle problems. The BCS standings didn't consider Oregon's loss of Dennis Dixon, so LSU shouldn't receive consideration any differently. Injuries are part of the game and too subjective to incorporate in BCS standings and bowl berth selection.
Fifth, and this is the king daddy of them all, after defeating number 16 (number 14 from last week) Tennessee, LSU leaped over two other teams who won in the BCS standings, one of whom was Virginia Tech who had defeated number 14 (number 11 from last week) Boston College.
Sixth, Hokie fans would travel to the national championship as equally well as LSU, so that's no excuse for the BCS big whigs.
Lastly, some may argue that Oklahoma may deserve the national championship game berth ahead of Virginia Tech. WRONG! Again, Oklahoma has two losses at the hands of teams not currently ranked in the BCS Top 25.
I am more mad than Mad Jay when he thinks of Brian Stienspring. I hope the Hokies give Kansas the most merciless pounding the history of the Orange Bowl and that LSU has the worst day of their entire life as a football program, which I'm considering to not even watch as a form of protest against this shoddy decision making.
First and foremost, they have two losses, not overtime losses. The NHL distinguishes between the two, but the NCAA does not. Therefore, they have two losses. Those two losses came at the hands of teams who do not have a Top 25 ranking at the closing of the pre-bowl season. Virginia Tech stands out as the only conference champion to have two losses to teams currently ranking in the BCS Top 25.
Secondly, the thought of a head-to-head tie breaker doesn't hold water. The schedules of these two teams are very different given that they play in different conferences. For teams playing in the same division of the same conference, such a tie breaker makes sense because there is a level playing field. (Pardon the pun, unintended.) This is not the case between Virginia Tech and LSU.
Thirdly, favoritism towards SEC teams is discriminatorally unfair. LSU plays in the SEC by their own choice. If they wanted to play in another conference, they very well could. Weighing one conference above all others in terms of bowl selection promotes bias that can lead to assumptions that skew perception of how good teams really are. The most fair way to judge a team is on what they've earned on paper, not public opinion. And Virginia Tech has earned more than LSU. The BSC system has only, in this respect, screwed Hawaii more so than it has Virginia Tech this year.
Fourth, LSU has had to overcome injuries in their games this year. So has Virginia Tech, probably more so that LSU. I can list Ed Wang, Vince Hall, Tyrod Taylor, Sean Glennon (although only briefly), and Eddie Royal just off the top of my head. You could even consider Branden Ore playing a number of games not at 100% with his ankle problems. The BCS standings didn't consider Oregon's loss of Dennis Dixon, so LSU shouldn't receive consideration any differently. Injuries are part of the game and too subjective to incorporate in BCS standings and bowl berth selection.
Fifth, and this is the king daddy of them all, after defeating number 16 (number 14 from last week) Tennessee, LSU leaped over two other teams who won in the BCS standings, one of whom was Virginia Tech who had defeated number 14 (number 11 from last week) Boston College.
Sixth, Hokie fans would travel to the national championship as equally well as LSU, so that's no excuse for the BCS big whigs.
Lastly, some may argue that Oklahoma may deserve the national championship game berth ahead of Virginia Tech. WRONG! Again, Oklahoma has two losses at the hands of teams not currently ranked in the BCS Top 25.
I am more mad than Mad Jay when he thinks of Brian Stienspring. I hope the Hokies give Kansas the most merciless pounding the history of the Orange Bowl and that LSU has the worst day of their entire life as a football program, which I'm considering to not even watch as a form of protest against this shoddy decision making.
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