Friday, November 21, 2008

The Coastal Mess

Obsessed by the ubiquitous mess in the Coastal Division I've spent a little time devising a definitive guide to who'd go to the title game in the various scenarios. There are six games left involving Coastal Division teams and other ACC teams (I'm excluding the Georgia/Georgia Tech game as it does not factor into any scenario.)

These games are:
  • Duke @ VT
  • UVA @ VT
  • NC State @ UNC
  • UNC @ Duke
  • Clemson @ UVA
  • Miami @ NC State
That means there are 2^6 (or 64) possible outcomes to the Coastal race.

  • The winning ACC record will be 5-3.
  • Georgia Tech is done with ACC play and they are currently 5-3 in the ACC.
  • Statistically, Georgia Tech has the best chance of getting to the title game as there are 26 possible scenarios in their favor
  • Miami has been eliminated. Even if they get to 5-3, who they have lost to factor them out.
  • Virginia Tech is one of two teams that controls their destiny. Win both games and they are in.
  • Of the 64 scenarios this happens in 16 scenarios so, statistically they have 1/4 chance of achieving this.
  • UVA is the other. Win out and they're in.
  • Georgia Tech would needs the most help with at least one loss by each of UNC, VT, and UVA.
  • UNC would need to win out and a loss by UVA and VT.
If anyone wants to see the giant matrix I created for this I'd gladly show it to you!


Slambeau said...

I want the matrix.

Also, if you could please estimate probabilities of each game's outcome (not just the total number of scenarios, as you have done), you could use that to get a weighted estimate of teams' chances of winning Coastal. Then, normalize *that* outcome by your personal effectiveness picking games so far this season. Then, apply a special ACC weighting (divide by infinity and add a random number) to make it scary accurate!

And hurry! It's almost Saturday!!

MadJay said...

You were the NASA guy at the GT game.