The Coastal Mess

Obsessed by the ubiquitous mess in the Coastal Division I've spent a little time devising a definitive guide to who'd go to the title game in the various scenarios. There are six games left involving Coastal Division teams and other ACC teams (I'm excluding the Georgia/Georgia Tech game as it does not factor into any scenario.)

These games are:

• Duke @ VT
• UVA @ VT
• NC State @ UNC
• UNC @ Duke
• Clemson @ UVA
• Miami @ NC State

That means there are 2^6 (or 64) possible outcomes to the Coastal race.

• The winning ACC record will be 5-3.
  
• Georgia Tech is done with ACC play and they are currently 5-3 in the ACC.
  
• Statistically, Georgia Tech has the best chance of getting to the title game as there are 26 possible scenarios in their favor
• Miami has been eliminated. Even if they get to 5-3, who they have lost to factor them out.
• Virginia Tech is one of two teams that controls their destiny. Win both games and they are in.
  
• Of the 64 scenarios this happens in 16 scenarios so, statistically they have 1/4 chance of achieving this.
• UVA is the other. Win out and they're in.
• Georgia Tech would needs the most help with at least one loss by each of UNC, VT, and UVA.
• UNC would need to win out and a loss by UVA and VT.

If anyone wants to see the giant matrix I created for this I'd gladly show it to you!