Sunday, November 16, 2008

Follow up

My Calm and Beloved Reader,
One point I made in my game review below was the huge disparity between the effectiveness of the Virginia Tech defense at the end of games and the ineffectiveness of the offense at the end of games in 2008. It inspired me to do some extended research. Now thanks to a lot of beer and staying up way too late, I have calculated a statistic that is going to blow your mind.

Bryan Stinespring has been offensive coordinator since 2001 so let's look at the Hokies from 2001 up through the Thursday night game in Miami. 

In that timeframe, the Hokie defense has taken the field with a lead of 8 points or less at the end of the game (but always with more than 1 minute left, meaning that the opposing offense has a legitimate chance to tie or win) a total of 16 times. They stopped the opposing offense a total of 13 times and let the opponent tie or win the game 3 times. They are successful 81% of the time and it's a testament to Coach Foster and that defense.

In that same timeframe the offense has taken the field either tied or within 8 points of the lead, at the end of the game (again I only counted situations with at least 1 minute or more left in the game) a total of 12 times, needing a score to win or send the game to overtime. In those 7 years, the Hokies have scored 1 time (against Miami in 2006 to win 17-10). That is a success rate of 8.3%. 

When the game is on the line during Coach Stinespring's tenure, the Hokie defense has been, literally, 10 TIMES BETTER at winning the game than the offense. On Coach Beamer's radio show earlier this season, he told a caller named Jason from Arlington that Jason was "out of whack" for pointing out the relatively poor performance by the offense. Coach Beamer, I think if you look at the stat I just came across you will see what is truly "out of whack" here.


richard said...

Great statistical investigation.
I have to add in momentum, in the games we are up and the defense has to hold on to win, I am always about to go apeshit on the tele but I feel a confidence. Yet, when the offense needs to score, I feel beaten and I am usually quite and feel dependent on one player such as TT to pull a miracle on a broken play.
Btw, it would be interesting to see how some other teams react in the same situations just to get some bearings. Say WVU, Tennessee, Cal or Oregon.
Again great post. I really hope Stinespring resigns. He is a disease in our system!

mainaman said...
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mainaman said...

Here , I took the time to dig exactly what Beamer said in response to Jason
"Now, I don't care where we rank statistically," said Beamer, whose offense ranked 100th out of 119 Division I-A schools in total yards last season. "I think part of being good coaches is look at what you've got and, 'OK, what's the best way for our offense to help our defense win?' Sometimes it's to be conservative, take care of the ball, punt it, play good defense, get field position, score.
I think he needs to reread it and probably will now realize 3/4 of what he said is not happening this season to say the least.
Is it me or did Beamer actually admit he counts on the defense to win the game ?

Brian "Where's The Ice?" said...

Jay, not even the ESPN Gameday commentators could produce such a researched set of statistics!

Anand "EhhTee" Trivedi said...

Aww come on Brian. You know better than that! Commentators are just talking heads. They have paid statisticians. Even so, they haven't come up with that one either.

MadJay said...

Well that was a good nap. I still feel ill about the Miami loss, but I feel better than I did this morning.

Mainaman, my only hope is that Beamer was saying what he needed to in order to defend his coaching staff in public. Privately he may still plan on making changes after this season. That's the only thing I can figure. If he really doesn't think there's anything wrong with the offensive coaching at this point, then we truly are a lost cause and will follow Kansas State and Wisconsin back down into obscurity.

The reason ESPN statisticians won't come up with that stat is that they don't care about the ACC. The ACC has become an afterthought in college football because we can't win our BCS bowl. If you look at non-conference record against the other BCS conferences and Notre Dame, the ACC is actually 3rd best, but that doesn't matter because it's the BCS bowls that get the pub.